Fantasy football rankings week 12
/r/fantasyfootball - Good For Your Season
2008.08.27 23:14 /r/fantasyfootball - Good For Your Season
/fantasyfootball - Good For Your Season
2014.09.25 00:14 IIHURRlCANEII Fantasy Football: 12 Team 1 PPR
We be discussin.
2014.09.25 00:41 wuxbustah8 12TeamStandard
Fantasy Football Advice: 12 Team: Standard
2023.03.26 23:55 melvinlee88 Thought I would recommend 3 anime from the upcoming Spring 2023 season you should give a watch that I think needs more hype/love around it. Sci-fi adventures with Heavenly Delusion, SOL magic with Skip to Loafer and cute romance with Galaxy Next Door!
I have not written a anime
suggestion/recommendation post in quite a while. But that's mostly because it's been quite a few seasons since I've gotten really excited about source material I personally adore getting adapted into anime. Well, until now.
This season has been getting a lot of hype for being one of the most stacked seasons in recent memory. New season of Dr. Stone, Demon Slayer, Tonikaku Kawaii, Ousama Ranking, Magus Bride and popular shounen stuff getting adapted like Mashle, Oshi no Ko and etc. Wow, so many shows. So many. BUT
I am not here to promote shows that quite honestly do no need any promoting. I'm here to shine a spotlight on three upcoming anime adapted from underrated seinen manga which simply don't seem to receive the hype they deserve. I've read and caught up with all 3 of the manga I'm about to recommend here and I want nothing more than them to get the popularity it deserves. So please, give at least one of them - if not all 3 of them a watch! Now first up:
Tengoku Daimakyou (Heavenly Delusion) Trailer
Legal Streams: Disney+
If you know me in Reddit, you know that I love Soremachi. Hell, I'd like to say I'm the biggest Soremachi fan outside Japan. I've written WT!, hosted a rewatch, made a fansite and everything. But I'm also foremost a big fan of Masakazu Ishiguro who wrote Soremachi and his current work, Tengoku Daimakyou which has an anime in a week's time!
The trailer alone should sell you on the anime immediately, I'm so happy to see that the manga has been given so much love and it captures the essence of what made the manga so highly rated in Japan, winning a few awards when it got released. It's got a great amount of people working on it animation wise and music wise, composed by the amazing Kensuke Ushio (Ping Pong Animation, Devilman Crybaby, Chainsawman, Boogiepop and etc). Yet, I see it 19th in members on MAL for the Spring 2023 season which is a bit disappointing.
This series is a sci-fi post apocalyptic anime that tells the story of two different worlds with two different sets of casts as they slowly uncover the mysteries that surround them and reach their own specific goals. The manga's strength is in the amounts of foreshadowing that it uses when telling the story and it is just so compelling because of it. The characters in this series are honestly pretty likable and they all have their own fleshed out backgrounds which adds to the realism of the world. I don't want to expand too much on the synopsis because the experience of going into this series blind is something I don't want to rob you.
And finally, the manga is just really funny. Ishiguro-sensei wrote Soremachi before this and his brand of humour is still there, thankfully and he manages to create this dark and sinister sci-fi premise blend just perfectly with humour without feeling out of place. Trust me, if you do watch Tengoku - you'll love how silly Maru and Kiruko are as long as with some of the cast members.
This is a manga that is released in the Afternoon magazine - same magazine that had Vinland Saga, Houseki no Kuni, Blade of Immortal, Wave Listen To Me, Blame!, Blue Period and so much more. Afternoon Magazine does not miss and genuinely knows a good story when they see one. Vinland Saga mangaka is a big fan of Tengoku and if that isn't a reputable review, I don't know what is.
Finally, I would say watch this if you are a fan of proper sci-fi post-apocalyptic series (many people have called this Akira-like and Ishiguro is a big fan of Akira) which genuinely builds a compelling work and fun cast of members. Don't miss this, we don't get things like this animated every day. It's so good.
Skip to Loafer Trailer
Legal Streams: Crunchyroll
High school anime/manga is an overdone genre that quite honestly are the same thing, really. It's always either about romance, comedy or some specific gimmick (cheerleading, board games, fitness, camping, etc). Of course not all them are bad, hell some of them are among my favourite anime (check my MAL). But most of them feel a bit samey after a while.
Enter Skip to Loafer. This manga follows Mitsumi as she moves from her rural hometown to Tokyo to study in high school and get into law school to then be a public servant. She's smart but also charmingly a bit of a straight arrow type of personality and also a bit of a country bumpkin. But man, I promise you, she'll be one of the most lovable character you'll see this year.
I think my joy with this manga is seeing her grow as a person and how she deals with making new friends in the big 'scary' city with the other side characters in this manga. Oh man, the side characters. The side characters in this manga are really well done, as they all seem to have their own personalities that never centers around the MC but have their own little troubles and personality in their own little world. And it's endlessly fascinating, without taking too much of a shine off Mitsumi.
The plot of the series does not take off immediately but it eventually expands a lot on some of the stuff high school students deal with like insecurities, friendships, futures and etc which almost never gets touched on in high school manga. It does it without feeling preachy and it's also really really funny too. This manga has a focus on romance too (in a way) but it never feels tacked on and just flows along with the story of these high school students we are following.
Honestly, this manga feels like two of my favourite manga into one - Soremachi and Yugami-kun ni wa Tomodachi ga Inai and it's just great. Anime-wise, I feel like if you enjoyed Barakamon or Gin no Saji/Silver Spoon - you'll really love this series too as it shares some similarities on being a larger than life SOL series.
The trailer for the series looks stunning as well and I would expect nothing less from PA Works. I honestly love their work when they adapt existing source material and you can see the love they pour into it, doing justice to the manga. The art is pretty and the characters are sparkling so bright :)
Watch this if you like a SOL series that is light and comfy but also has a diverse cast of characters and taking on interesting high school issues that rarely gets expanded on. I love this manga.
A Galaxy Next Door Trailer
Legal Streams: Crunchyroll
This manga is honestly a lot better than people give it credit for and I like to say that it is a hidden gem. This is written by Gido Amagakure who wrote Sweetness and Lightning and yes it is also just as comfy. It tells the story of Ichirou Kuga who is a mangaka that is struggling to make ends meet to support his younger siblings who one day meets a mysterious lady who has agreed to be his manga assistant. And Kuga slowly realizes she's not just your average assistant.
First things first, this manga has adult protagonists which yes, is already really refreshing in the first place. What I like a lot about this manga is that the relationship between Kuga and Shiori are just so cute, in a way that you can't help but cheer them on together. Their chemistry is irresistible and I'm always beaming and grinning everytime I read their silly little conversations.
While this manga doesn't tackle 'serious issues', it is still very touching at times and seeing Kuga genuinely struggle to support his younger siblings is heartbreaking at times but also the familial bond between him and his siblings shine throughout the manga. There's a realistic tone to the writing that I absolutely adore. Amgakure-sensei knows how to write kids and it shines through here, you'll find them wanting to adopt them the moment you see them on screen for the first time.
I will add that this manga has a slightly fantastical tone to it (which I won't spoil) but it is a SOL romance through and through. Yet, it's a SOL romance that has adults in it which again feels refreshing because it tackles a lot of other different things and responsibilities. It's still endlessly cute and comfy but it's a good different, I'd say.
Definitely read this if you want some comfy SOL that also has refreshing adult romance and stories in it.
Thank you all for reading this post. It's a bit of a long-winded one but I honestly love this 3 manga to death and it would mean the world to me, if these three get the recognition they deserve. Now, all we can do now is wait for the first few episodes of them to come out. Please do not miss it, I promise you - it'll be worth your time.
Once again, thank you for reading and happy watching!
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2023.03.26 23:55 TribeTime26 Jump in before we fill up! League Bylaws: https://www70.myfantasyleague.com/2023/home/19611#5 Dispersal Draft Pool: https://www70.myfantasyleague.com/2023/home/19611#7
2023.03.26 23:54 Scarygary522 [WTS] This weeks bundle: "Perfect-for-spring (Masculine)" Niche, designer, and discontinued fragrances available in 2, 5, or 10mL decants. UP TO 20% OFF FOR BUNDLES! (Decant)
Hello all! I've got some decants for available for sale. Bundles available... Scroll down!
Please comment before PMing/chatting! Chat preferred.
Bundles (First one is different every week!):
**It will save a lot of time and confusion if you can specify which bundle you'd like to purchase and the contents of said bundle! (Ie: 10mL Perfect-for-spring, 2mL MYOB3 *name of fragrances*, etc)*\
- Perfect-for-spring (Masculine)
- Escentric Molecules - Molecule 01
- Etat Libre d'Orange - Hermann a Mes Cotes EDP
- Histoires de Parfums - 1725 EDP
- Maison Francis Kurkdjian - Gentle Fluidity Silver EDP
- Guerlain - L'Homme Ideal Cologne
- 2mL - $39 shipped
- 5mL - $69 shipped
- 10mL - $106 shipped
- MAKE YOUR OWN BUNDLE 3 (MYOB3):
- 2mL bundle: 3 x any 2mL decants - 5% off
- 5mL bundle: 3 x any 5mL decants - 10% off
- 10mL bundle: 3 x any 10mL decants - 15% off
- MAKE YOUR OWN BUNDLE 5 (MYOB5):
- 2mL bundle: 5 x any 2mL decants - 10% off
- 5mL bundle: 5 x any 5mL decants - 15% off
- 10mL bundle: 5 x any 10mL decants - 20% off
Shipping: CONUS only.
$9 flat. All packages will be shipped out via USPS parcel select ground within 1-2 business days after payment and will take 2-8 days to arrive.
Orders of single 2mL decants can be shipped via USPS first class for $4.
Payment methods: PayPal F&F
(+3.49%). Other payment methods can be discussed, but PayPal is preferred.
- Decants will come in bottles that look like this
- All decants will come sealed with PTFE/Teflon tape.
- Clearly labeled with fragrance house and name.
- They will be individually wrapped and packaged using a small plastic bag, bubble wrap, and cardboard support.
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2023.03.26 23:54 windarcane [Nintendo DS or PSP] [Mid 2000s] Turn-based strategy game where characters get white hair when they are strong enough
Nintendo DS or PSP
Isometric turn based tactics RPG
Estimated year of release:
Anime characters, similar to Fire Emblem. Map was closer to Final Fantasy Tactics.
I can't remember most of the characters, but the character you start as and mostly see the story as is a knight with blue hair. He has sort of the same hair as Chrom from fire emblem. Through the story, as he gets stronger, his hair turns white or grey instantly and he is way more ripped. Several other male characters have the same pattern of having some color hair that turns white when they're strong enough. There are many female characters, but I can't recall anything about them other than the sound they make when they're damaged making me terribly embarrassed.
Notable gameplay mechanics:
Very similar to any turn based isometric game, where you can move x amount of spots per turn and the enemy does too. If you're close enough, then you can attack based upon what your character can do.
I remember vaguely that the story began with a whole lot of dialogue between the knight you play as and a princess or a queen or some other high ranking lady. It was certainly set in a medieval time with magic. I feel like the main character's name is Roland or something but I can't find anything like that.
I feel like it was on the DS, but I also recall playing a lot of FF7 Crisis Core on my PSP around the same time, so I am unsure which device it would have been on.
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2023.03.26 23:54 Foreign_Business471 SRS alternation to Canada
To transitioning sisters and brothers
A person who has had a heart attack needing surgery to save their life will receive that surgery immediately. A person diagnosed with gender critical dysphoria needing SRS to save their life will wait 2-4 years in Canada to get that surgery, hence a 41% suicidal rate among transgender. Mental health is not given the same attention and timely care as physical health yet equally life threatening.
Thirty years ago I was subjected over a three month period to conversion therapy believing that this was going to get me on a transitioning program. I was wrong; it was pure mental torture, so painful that I wanted to kill myself. Of all things, it was at the courtesy of the Ministry of health. To survive I buried myself in 60-80 hour work week forgetting who I was but it never went away, it was always there.
Thirty five years later the wanting to transition had manifested itself to a dire necessity, “critical dysphoria”. Much had changed; I was able to get the necessary documentation from my health care providers. Besides having all the documentation, I still could not get that much needed surgery for at least three years. Before I could get on a wait list on GRS Montreal or Women’s collage hospital, I had to have funding approval by the Ontario ministry of Health. Wait time for MOH was going to be at least 12-18 months. Despite my unique situation, I could not get conditional approval. Despite willing to pay for the surgery myself, the clinics referred me back to MOH. This was mental torture all over again, I came close to jumping off a balcony, it would have been so easy.
My Health system that was suppose be there for me was detrimental and a danger to my life.
With all due respect and love for my health care workers they were not able to provide or know of any alternatives. I searched the world where I could get my surgery done ASAP. I found Kamol Hospital in Bangkok Thailand. My wait time was only 8 weeks, it saved my life. Turned out that Dr Kamol is one of the best plastic surgeon in the world. I was only eight months on hormones yet they evaluated my situation as an individual thus deeming it necessary to proceed with SRS. Kamol Hospital is eight stories high with three ultra-modern operating theaters. Canada performs only two types of surgeries, post-op recovery is two days in the hospital and five days in convalescent home. In comparison, Canada’s procedures are limited, Kamol hospital offers six different procedures many of which have been mastered by Dr Kamol. Post-op recovery is five days in the hospital and two to three weeks in convalescent home. I am extremely impressed with the results of my SRS and the pre/post care I received. I am forever grateful. I have never known such happiness
I write to you, not as a representative of Kamol hospital, but as a transgender who wants to bring awareness to others so that they do not have to unduly suffer through long wait times and for them to receive better surgery and care as we all deserve. https://www.kamolhospital.com/en/service/
I make myself available to you or your patients should they want further details
Michelle Katrine Goodman
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2023.03.26 23:51 Few_Librarian5210 Resume Critique 2024 Goldman Sachs Summer Internship for Investment Banking (First year)
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2023.03.26 23:50 chatsifieds Fraudulent Property Listing Scams - Your IT and Tech Mates
| || | submitted by chatsifieds to chatsifieds [link] [comments]
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2023.03.26 23:50 necrochaos [USA-MI] [H] Playstation TV, Games for Nintendo Switch/Playstation/Xbox and more [W] Super Mario Battle League, Famicom Detective Club, Like a Dragon: Ishin, PS5 games, Switch 64 controller, lists
Playstation TV with 32GB SD card and a Dualshock 3 controller. Power cable and HDMI included. Precracked with Henkaku, VitaShell and other necessities. No games included.
Gameboy Four Player Adapter DMG-07
Gamestop Gamecube Controllers
Nintendo 3ds off brand charger.
Xbox 360 Media Remote (short)
Xbox 360 Media Remote (long)
Mario Golf Super Rush Pin Set
- Famicom Detective Club
- Mario Strikers Battle League
- Live a Live
- Like a Dragon: Ishin!
submitted by necrochaos
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2023.03.26 23:50 Labro_Thor Dog is not interested in her food anymore. What should I do?
My 2 year old dog lost interest in her food. I feed her Purina Pro Plan Nature Elements Regular Digestion. She started Prozac about a week ago, but she had shown lack of interest in her food a few times before (less severe though). She shows no other symptoms except her disinterest in that specific food (and two more mentioned below).
She definitely still has appetite (e.g. she'll devour Platinum Lamb + Rice
, but I'm afraid of feeding her Platinum due to dietary DCM concerns).
What I have tried:
- Taking the food away after 15 minutes and waiting until her next meal. This hasn't worked, but I also don't want to make her go without food for more than 24 hours (she usually pukes up bile if she doesn't eat for more than 12 hours and I prefer giving her Prozac with food)
- Soaking kibble in warm water (worked before, not this time)
- Different recipes and brands: PPP Sensitive Skin Salmon, Hill's Adult Chicken. She's not really interested in those either. Also, a few months ago she was on Hill's Perfect Digestion, but at some point she refused to eat it. I thought that perhaps the food went rancid as it was a big bag. So I bought a new bag and she started eating again, but stopped soon after. I suspect it might have something to do with the smell of PPP and Hill's food. They all smell similar, whereas Platinum smells so much stronger and, in my opinion, tastier
- Putting the food in an interactive toy (worked only once since she had lost interest)
- Putting the food in my hand and then making her spin and do a few commands (mostly works). This doesn't work if I simply tell her a command (e.g. sit) and reward her; it seems that I have to incorporate some movement
- Handfeeding (works some times, but I don't want to get her used to it)
Could it be that these foods are causing her stomach pain and that she is associating the smell with the pain?
What should I do?
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2023.03.26 23:49 afterandalasia In 430 BCE, an epidemic swept through the besieged Athens that killed up to a quarter of the population. What caused the first well-documented epidemic, the Plague of Athens? Medical Mystery
This week, we're headed back in time to the earliest well-documented epidemic disease: the Plague of Athens. While the city was besieged by Spartans and packed with refugees from the surrounding countryside, an illness swept through the city and killed between 75,000 and 100,000 people. By the time it was over, the epidemic had decimated the Athenian army and navy, killed the influential ruler Pericles, and left social and legal repercussions that would last for generations. It was only in 1994-5 that an excavation uncovered the first mass grave dating to this period
, giving archaeological backing to the historical record, but almost since the Plague of Athens occurred there has been speculation as to the cause.
Background - The History & Archaeology
A quick note! History
and the historical record refer solely to written
material from these periods, while archaeology
and the archaeological record refer to all material culture. There's a lot of debate about whether that material culture should include the written records, but in practice archaeologists can and do use the written text as one source of evidence. Palaeoepidemiology
is the use of epidemiological techniques to study historical disease, while palaeomicrobiology
is the use of modern techniques to detect, identify and investigate historical microbes.
At the time we'll be discussing, Athens was a polis
or city state: a sovereign (ruled) city with political, economic, and cultural influence/control over the area surrounding it. (Singapore and Monaco could be considered modern examples.) The city in this time is often called Classical Athens
in history, to make it clear which stage of the city is being discussed; at the time, it would have been called Attica
. I'll be using Athens, along with BCE notation, for this write-up.
The area that would become known as Athens has been inhabited continuously since at least 3000 BCE, and seems to have risen to prominence around 900 BCE (during the Iron Age of the region) to judge by how grave goods become richer during this time. Passing from kings to land-owning aristocracy, Athens drew the surrounding countryside under its control, but this created waves of social unrest that first led to the harsh laws of Draco (7th century BCE, and where we get "draconian") followed by the reforms of Solon (594 BCE) and a constitution which would lead to the later Athens.
In 508 BCE, Cleisthenes established Athenian democracy (where all male citizens over 20 could vote), and in the following years the silver mines of Laurios also helped to make the region rich. From 499-449 BCE, Athens was heavily involved in the Greco-Persian wars, which can be more or less summarised as the various Greek city states working together to prevent invasion by the Achaemenid Empire (First Persian Empire), at the time the largest empire that the world had ever seen. Athens was one of the forefront players, and even faced brief occupation, but used their impressive naval strength to lead a battle that routed the Persians.
This role in ousting Persia marked Athens as one of the great political powerhouses of the area, and helped them to form the Delian League in 478 BCE, an alliance of coastal kingdoms which Athens quickly came to dominate and manipulate until it also became known as the Athenian Empire. The Peloponnesian League, an alliance of more inland states dominated by Sparta, had already existed and began to grow concerned by growing Athenian power.
In 461 BCE, a charismatic soldier-politician named Pericles
came to power in Athens. During his time in power, Pericles managed to strength Athenian military power and prestige, develop the Acropolis (the inner citadel of Athens, which is still full of famous buildings from the time of Pericles), and encourage culture and art in the city that cemented it as a cultural keystone in the region. This is known as the Age of Pericles
, and represents the peak of Athenian power and influence in the Mediterranean.
Through the time that Pericles was in power, however, tensions simmered between Athens and Sparta, the two foremost powers in the region. This led to the Peloponnesian War
(not to be confused with the First Peloponnesian War), where Sparta sought to invade Athens in order to curtail its power in the region.
Athens, however, was not easily invaded. From the sea, she was protected by her powerful navy (comparisons could be made to the much later British Empire); on land, where she knew she was less effective than Sparta, she had the Long Walls
of Athens. These extraordinary walls formed a sort of barbell shape going around the port of Piraeus and protecting a clear pathway to the city of Athens; Piraeus and Athens were about 6 km (3.7 miles) apart, so the entire structure (including the walls of Athens, Piraeus, and a third southern wall) included some 30 km (18.6) miles. An MapPorn
gives a great image of the walls as they would be overlaid on the modern city.
Sparta had limited options, but did what she could with them. The Spartan forces would briefly invade the lands around Athens, cutting off access to productive farmland and forcing Athens to rely on its maritime or colonial resources, then return to Sparta for agricultural work or to put down their own near-constant slave revolts. In 431 BCE, Sparta and her allies went through with one such invasion; the residents of the countryside, as usual, retreated within the walls of Athens for safety, to undergo a brief siege and wait for Sparta to withdraw. But this time, something went very differently.
The Plague of Athens
Our best source for the Plague of Athens is Thucydides, a historian and Athenian general. (Fortunately, Thucydides was also a political realist and preferred to discuss human causes and influences without relying on divine intervention for an explanation. Equally fortunately, his main text The History of the Peloponnesian War is available in English translation
online; it's book 2, sections 47-70, that concern the epidemic itself.
Thucydides survived the plague himself, in his work outlines not just the signs of the disease (reddening of the skin, pustules, and coughing) but also the symptoms (pain, thirst, and hopelessness). He does not speculate on the causes himself, but lists the symptoms so that the disease can be later recognised or discussed.
Per Thucydides, the disease was first noted in Ethiopia and moved into Egypt, Libya, Greece, and outwards across the Mediterranean, but Athens was the worst affected area.
The symptoms that Thucydides described, in the stages in which he gives them, were:
- "Heats in the head" (unclear if fever or pain), redness and inflammation of the eyes, throat and tongue becoming reddened or even bloody, breath becoming foul;
- Sneezing, hoarseness, pain in the chest, coughing;
- Gastrointestinal distress, with diarrhoea and retching/vomiting;
- Reddish skin with small pustules and ulcers;
- Feeling of being overheated, to the point of desiring nudity or immersion in cold water;
- Extreme thirst;
- Restlessness and insomnia;
- Death at around the seventh or eighth day after illness onset.
If this stage was survived, he added:
- "Violent" diarrhoea that could become fatal;
- Some people faced the loss of fingers, toes, eyes or genitals (unspecified method, usually speculated to be gangrene);
While the "Plague of Athens" is generally attributed to 430 BCE, the disease was also seen in 429 BCE, and the winter of 427-6 BCE.
The Social Effects
Along with the epidemic itself came a wave of fear that was at least as infectious; the effects of this were also laid out by Thucydides. Anyone who has studied the Black Death may find some striking similarities in behaviours during an epidemic at a time when the causes and treatment of disease was poorly, if at all, understood. Care for the sick and dead decreased
. People were aware that the disease was both infectious and highly dangerous, and as a result there were many who would not risk caring for an ill person even if they were a family member. Thucydides notes that doctors who treated the ill were highly likely to be infected; he also notes that some of those who died did so from lack of care (likely lack of water) while they were too weak to care for themselves. Similarly, Thucydides reports that some of those who died were not given proper burial rites, ranging from being added to the pyre of another to simply being abandoned. This may in part explain the mass grave that was found in the 1994-5 excavation. Respect for religion decreased
. Temples were generally considered places of healing, and may have seemed to have some success simply by providing supportive care such as pain management
, food and water, and even certain surgeries. With the epidemic, however, they were overwhelmed and unable to offer significant assistance. Many people who went to the temples, or were taken there, died. Thucydides reports that while offerings and supplications at the temple were common early in the epidemic, they declined. While the Greek gods had never been considered all-loving, the inability to help of priests and temples undermined religious organisations and perhaps in some cases religious belief itself. Respect for the law and society decreased
. When people felt as if they could die at any time, the law would not have time to catch up with them, and many members of the army were sick anyway. Some stopped caring about long-term investments and instead spent their money on living well while they could. Class and wealth became unstable subjects as deaths - even whole families being wiped out - redistributed wealth across the populace. Between societal instability and the fear of only having a brief time to live, some also behaved in socially unacceptable ways without care for backlash. (Thucydides does not particularly outline what these ways were.) Citizenship became a hot-topic issue
. In 451 BCE, Pericles had introduced a law stating that one could only be an Athenian citizen if both parents were, and had struck from the records of citizenship anyone who did not meet this strict criteria. While foreign residents (I will not use the ancient Greek term as it has been adopted in more recent times as a xenophobic slur in French) were subject to taxes and military service, they did not have the same rights as citizens: they could not claim state payments, could not claim emergency rations
, could not own real estate
without special exemptions, and could not vote. The issues in italics were particularly relevant during the epidemic. During the 430 BCE wave, a number of foreign residents were found to be claiming to be citizens, and were punished with slavery. After both of Pericles's legitimate sons died in the 429 BCE wave, however, he tried to adopt his illegitimate son and raise the son to citizen status despite having a non-citizen mother. Debates
have continued since about whether this was a general loosening of the law (since there were doubtless other powerful families who had lost all legitimate male heirs) or whether Pericles was trying to create an exception just for himself. Military decline
. The number of deaths, which per Thucydides included many healthy men of military age, heavily impacted what Athens was capable of for a generation. Athens would not manage another major military endeavour until 415-3 BCE with the "disastrous" Sicilian expedition, and by 405 BCE Athens lost in naval battle to Sparta and her naval supremacy was also broken. This was still within 25 years of the Plague of Athens - young soldiers then should have been experienced officers by 405 BCE, but because of a lack of military activity creating a lack of experience, the impact was significant. Political shift
. Pericles was not the only prominent statesman at this time, but he was arguably the most influential in terms of both military policy and cultural focus - these can be seen continuing across a stretch of time in which other statesmen come and go, and seem to decline after his death. The focus on philosophy and culture, as well as the monumental architecture as seen in the Acropolis, both fade away over the following years.
As well as the list of symptoms outlined by Thucydides, the following information can be fairly considered regarding the Plague of Athens:
- Contagion - Thucydides describes how doctors and caregivers were most likely to be infected.
- Acquired/Adaptive Immunity - it is Thucydides, once again, who discusses how those who caught the disease and survived were the ones to nurse the sick, because they could not get sick again. This suggests that the disease gives acquired immunity, though it is not known whether the immunity was lifelong (like measles or rubella) or temporary (pertussis at 4 to 20 years, SARS CoV2 within months), complete or partial. Thucydides is considered to be the first to write down evidence of acquired immunity.
- Mortality Rate - in Athens, the mortality rate is estimated at around 25%, but conditions in the city were overcrowded and poor, and Thucydides notes that this is worse than was seen elsewhere. It is likely this rate was worsened by lack of available care, poor living conditions, and potential comorbidities in some of the sufferers. Thucydides mentions how military age men are affected, but does not otherwise note a bias in sex or age in terms of death.
- Skeletal Signs - the excavator of the 1994-5 has since published on the bones found, and has not made note of any skeletal anomalies that could relate to specific diseases. This is perhaps not a surprise, since most diseases that can develop skeletal signs are long-term (e.g. tuberculosis or syphilis) but is still worth noting.
- Zoonosis? - due to Thucydides's observations about scavenging animals, with his implication that dogs were affected by the epidemic, some have suggested that the disease was zoonotic and could pass freely between humans an animals. Others have suggested it was anthroponotic, that is a primarily human disease that could pass occasionally to animals, while still others think that Thucydides may have just seen dogs sickening from eating rotted meat.
The Prime Suspects
At the time of the first wave of the disease, Thucydides writes, the residents of Piraeus suspecting that the Spartan armies had poisoned their water supplies, as the Spartans did not get sick while the disease spread through Piraeus and then Athens. While poisoning water systems is a known tactic, Thucydides did not think it likely in this case, and even noted that the Spartans retreated more quickly because they became aware of epidemic inside the city. Moreover, this would only be a mechanism for the epidemic to reach Athens, not its underlying cause.
Throughout over a century of discussion, there are some diseases which have been discussed more seriously and which seem to be stronger contestants for the title - I'll start with these.
- Epidemic typhus (Rickettsia prowazekii) is a bacterial infection passed along through tick faeces getting into open wounds. After exposure, the disease presents at 7-14 days with high fever, sickness, diarrhoea, coughing and joint pain; at 5-9 days after presentation a rash spreads across the entire body except for the face, palms and soles of the feet. Signs of meningioencephalitis (infection of the brain and/or membranes around it) follow, including sensitivity to light, altered mental status, and coma. Estimated 10%-60% mortality rate. Proposed in 1956 by historian A W Gomme; in 1992 by Vlachos; January 1999 by University of Maryland staff. This matches with symptoms of fever, chest pain, coughing, gastrointestinal issues, "reddish skin" and rare gangrene, but not eye inflammation, pustules/ulcers, or insomnia. Dogs can catch typhus but do not show symptoms. The timeline does not fully match.
- Typhoid fever (Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi) is a bacterial disease that spreads through the fecal-oral route. After exposure, the disease presents at 6-30 days with a slowly building fever, malaise, headache, cough and nosebleeds; during the second week of symptoms, the fever plateaus, delirium occurs, rose spots (small red macules) appear, the abdomen is distended and painful, and there may be constipation or diarrhoea. In the third week, the patient may experience intestinal bleeding, pneumonia, encephalitis, or sepsis. Proposed in May 2006 by Papagrigorakis et al based on dental DNA from the mass grave discussed above (though some consider typhoid fever endemic to ancient Greece, which is possible as Typhi is likely at least older than the Neolithic.) This matches with symptoms of fever and coughing, and may match with pustules (if misidentified macules - Thucydides was a historian, not a doctor) and gastrointestinal distress (diarrhoea is much more noticeable than constipation), but does not match with vomiting, insomnia or rare gangrene. Thucydides does not mention any delirium-related symptoms. Dogs cannot develop typhoid. The timeline does not match.
- Smallpox (Variola minor) was a viral disease that spread through respiratory droplets or fomites. After exposure, the disease presented at 7-14 days with fever, muscle pain, headache, and gastrointestinal distress; at 12-15 days after symptoms appeared, lesions appeared on the mucous membranes (inside of mouth, nose and throat), then 1-2 days later a rash would start at the forehead and spread rapidly across the body, developing into pustules that slowly scabbed over and scarred. Estimated 30% mortality rate. Proposed in 1969 by Littman & Littman. This matches with symptoms of fever, coughing, gastrointestinal distress, and pustules, but does not match with insomnia. Dogs could not contract smallpox. Smallpox could cause blindness, which could explain the loss of eyes that Thucydides mentions. However, it is notable that Thucydides did not mention the very distinctive scarring that results from smallpox, in contrast with the Antonine Plague (165-180 CE) which is believed to be smallpox in part because Galen specifically recorded that 65-85% of survivors bore scarring.
- Measles (Measles morbillivirus) is a viral disease that spreads through respiratory droplets or fomites. It is the most contagious virus known. After exposure, the disease presents at 10-14 days with high fever, cough, sneezing, red eyes and a rash which starts on the back of the ears and covers the head before spreading downwards. Complications can include diarrhoea, pneumonia, encephalitis, corneal scarring, and immune system suppression. Fatality rates as high as 28% have been recorded. Proposed at least since 1953 (as per this rebuttal), and more recently in 2004 by Cunha. This matches with symptoms of fever, conjunctivitis, bad breath, coughing, pustules (if misidentified, as typhoid) and loss of eyes (if blindness), but does not match with symptoms of gastrointestinal distress, insomnia, or rare gangrene. Dogs cannot contract measles. Timeline may match. Note that there is disagreement over the age of the measles virus: some calculate that it evolved around 1100-1300 CE (Furuse et al 2010) while others calculate 700-600 BCE (Düx et al 2020 [Manuscript without paywall]).
- Plague (Yersinia pestis) is a bacterial disease that spreads through the bite of infected fleas (bubonic) or through respiratory droplets (pneumonic). After exposure, bubonic plague presents at 2-7 days with fever, chills, malaise, and buboes (swelling of the lymph nodes, especially those of the groin or armpits) and can progress to seizures and gangrene of the extremities. 30-90% mortality rate. Pneumonic plague can develop from bubonic plague, with the infection spreading into the lungs, or can be caught and will present after 3-7 days with rapidly developing pneumonia and fever that can cause death in as little as 36 hours. Near 100% mortality rate. It is difficult to find who first proposed plague, but it seems to go back at least as far as the 1940s. This matches with symptoms of fever, malaise, coughing and rare gangrene, but not with symptoms of gastrointestinal distress. Dogs can, in rare circumstances, contract plague. Timeline may match. It is generally considered unlikely that Thucydides's reference to "pustules" could possibly refer to the very distinctive swollen, blackening buboes that mark bubonic plague throughout history, which are therefore not mentioned. There is also no mention of an influx of rats, which is common (though not universal) to later histories of plague.
These are largely included because I have seen them discussed and don't want to let any of them feel left out, but they are more fringe theories. Some are more compelling than others, while some are rather surprising.
- Viral Haemorrhagic Diseases - including Lassa Fever (Lassa mammarenavirus), Dengue Fever (Dengue virus), or a disease from the Ebolavirus or Marburgvirus genuses. These are all viral diseases with varied methods of transmission (Lassa Fever from mouse droppings, Dengue Fever by mosquito, Ebolaviruses and Marburgviruses from bodily fluid contact) which present in short times with fever and bleeding (as small bruises, flushing, or "VHF syndrome" which is extreme full-body bleeding and circulatory shock). Mortality rates range from 1% (Lassa Fever) to 90-100% (early Ebola outbreaks). Due to the range of illnesses covered by this label, it is difficult to survey them all, but while Thucydides discusses "reddish, livid" skin he does not seem to discuss massive haemorrhagic events.
- Ergot Poisoning - much like Lupus in House, Ergot poisoning or ergotism seems to crop up regularly in discussing historical mysteries. Ergotism comes from consuming grain infected with the fungus Claviceps purpurea which produces an alkaloid toxin. Ergotism can be convulsive (with seizures, spasms, diarrhoea, mania/psychosis, headaches, nausea and vomiting) or gangrenous (causing dry gangrene of the peripheries). Frankly, ergotism does not match many of the symptoms of the Plague of Athens, and it seems highly unlikely that a large proportion of the city would all become ill from infected grain at the same time, or that it would recur in following years.
- Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) is a bacterial disease which can spread through skin contact, ingestion, or inhalation. Cutaneous anthrax (of the skin) causes skin redness around an ulceration that can become necrotic, fatality rate 20%. Ingestion anthrax causes diarrhoea, sometimes bloody, and occasional vomiting of blood, fatality rate 25-75%. Inhalation anthrax causes fever, fatigue, coughing, shortness of breath, may develop nausea or altered mental status, and when the infection reaches the lungs a heightened fever, circulatory shock, and death in as little as 48 hours. Fatality rate near 100%. Proposed in 2003 by Holmes. While Holmes describes how anthrax can answer all of the primary symptoms discussed by Thucydides, the three types of anthrax do not typically overlap, and anthrax persists in the soil for up to decades yet the Plague of Athens is not described as having lingered or recurred in this way. Moreover, the largest recorded outbreak of inhalation anthrax is known to have killed at least 66 people, following a breach of the Biological Warfare facility in Sverdlovsk in the USSR (now in Russia) - and while Soviet secrecy means the number may have been higher, and vaccines were administered, it is still a long way from 100,000 deaths.
- Scarlet Fever (Streptococcus pyogenes) is a bacterial disease which is a relatively rare complication of either strep throat or streptococcal skin infections. It presents with fever, coughing, and reddening of the skin with flat spots that develop into rough-feeling bumps. When untreated, the infection can spread to other areas of the body, most dangerously as encephalitis or endocarditis (infection of the heart's inner layers), and in some cases can cause acute rheumatic fever or severe kidney infections. Most cases resolve within 5-10 days, but fatality rate 15-20%. Proposed historically but viewed with doubt by the 1920s. Matches symptoms of fever, coughing and reddened skin, but not gastrointestinal distress, and is a complication of strep throat or of skin infections rather than a condition that will effect every infected person.
- Syphilis (Treponema pallidum pallidum) is a bacterial disease which is transmitted sexually or from parent to foetus during pregnancy. I cannot find any source that actually proposes this as a reason, only sources refuting it, which seems eminently sensible given that large proportions of the city were supposed to have been infected at once.
- Malaria (Plasmodium) is a parasitic disease transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes (at least one subspecies of which historically inhabited Greece). It presents with a cyclic fever, vomiting, headaches, and in severe cases can cause jaundice, seizures, coma or death. However, malaria does not have anything like the death rate of the Plague of Athens, and as early as 1907 (Jones) it was considered that malaria was more likely to have been or to have become endemic in the region around this time. Hippocrates (who was born around 460 BCE, so was around 30 when this epidemic took place) wrote later in life on identifying fevers that had three-day or four-day cycles, which are specific to different forms of malaria. While Thucydides is not a doctor, it seems unlikely that he would miss the cycling nature of the fever, especially having experienced it himself, and malaria would not explain gastrointestinal distress.
- Cholera (Vibrio cholerae) is a bacterial disease transmitted by the fecal-oral route. To be honest, I didn't even look deeply into this suggestion, because cholera has very distinctive "rice-water stool", or diarrhoea so extreme that it looks like cloudy water. Fever is rare in cholera (to the point that fever usually points at a secondary infection) and the throat/chest are not affected.
- Influenza (Alphainfluenzavirus or Influenza A) is a viral disease transmitted by respiratory droplets. It presents with fever, coughing, and can cause gastrointestinal distress, but does not match with the reddish skin and pustules described by Thucydides. Moreover, most human flu strains are very rarely fatal - even the 1918-20 influenza pandemic is estimate to have had 2-3% mortality. Strains with higher fatality, such as H5N1 ("bird flu"), do not show human-to-human transmission and have fewer than 1,000 recorded cases altogether.
- An argument was at one time put forward that the Plague of Athens was caused by epidemics at the same time of influenza and staphylococcus infections (dubbed "Thucydides Syndrome"), which seems to have been generally rebuffed and occasionally mocked. While 2022 has shown that multiple epidemics or pandemics can be present at once, it is much rarer for individuals to be affected by both at the same time, let alone for a large percentage of individuals to be so affected. While influenza can leave people vulnerable to secondary infections, it does not do so reliably enough to sustain this argument.
- Alimentary Toxic Aleukia (ATA) is a disease caused by ingesting grain infected by fungus (seemingly from the Fusarium genus) and was identified in 1945. It presents with nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, bleeding, skin inflammation, pustules, depression, and death in up to 60% of those affected within 3-5 weeks of symptom onset. Proposed in 1994 by Bellemore et al. While it matches with some symptoms, it does not cause a fever, and though conditions were overcrowded and unpleasant in Athens it does not seem that they were desperate or approaching starvation - the Spartans only ever besieged the city for a few weeks at a time, and throughout Athens maintained her port and therefore connection to the outside world. ATA has only been rarely recorded among communities with entirely shared food sources. (Efremov, in 1984, provides a thorough coverage of the condition.)
- Glanders (Burkholderia mallei) is a bacterial disease primarily associated with horses, but which can be contracted by humans. Proposed in 1962 by Eby and Evjen. Symptoms depend on the manner of exposure, similar to anthrax, but human infections are rare. Glanders as it is currently known seems an impossible match for the Plague of Athens; the authors of the paper point out that symptoms and fatality rates may vary from outbreak to outbreak, but do not outright suggest that this was a different subspecies as would seem to be necessary for transmission to occur.
Of course, there are always complications - and the two major suggestions that arise are either that the Plague of Athens was a disease which no longer exists or which has mutated significantly since this time (consider how Influenza C and Influenza D only split in around 480 CE, how current strains of canine rabies only date back to 540 CE at most, or as mentioned here how some people suspect that measles may be only hundreds, not thousands, of years old) or that there were in fact multiple diseases wracking Athens.
Thucydides does not list percentages of symptoms, or whether certain symptoms correlated; he does not give case fatality rates, mortality-by-age breakdowns, or even a single case study (his own would have been interesting enough). However, the simplicity with which he describes the symptoms and course of the epidemic which he experienced is rare enough in historical writing, and it is likely that clarity - that glimmer of a riddle being solved - which draws people back to this epidemic time and time again.
- Was it one disease which caused the Plague of Athens, or multiple?
- Was this the first recorded outbreak of this disease?
- Was it a disease which still exists today?
- What disease or diseases most appropriately explain the symptoms and course laid out by Thucydides in his description of the epidemic?
My previous medical posts:
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2023.03.26 23:49 V-I-N-N-Y- How Do I Get Into Dynasty Fantasy Leagues?
Hi, I've been doing regular fantasy football leagues for a while and want to get into my first dynasty league. I don't have any IRL friends to do it with and am willing to spend money to buy-in to a league. Whats the best place to find a league to join?
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2023.03.26 23:48 brycejm1991 [REQUEST][STEAM] Crisis core- FF7 - Reunion ($39.99USD) (2nd attempt)
Hey there GoG, I hope everyone's day/week is going good. I am here today to ask for Crisis Core on steam Why I want it.
Where do I even begin. I should probably start with that fact that my first FF was 7. A neighbofamily friend upgraded to a PS2 and gave me their PS1 and a copy of FF7. I was only like 10, but god damn did I play the shit out of the game. It was arguably the most amazing thing I had played up to that point. And of course this was before the internet was as main stream as it is now, so I had to figure everything out on my own, and I enjoyed every god damn minute of it.
Jump forward to 2006/7, I am now playing the hell out of Dirge of Cerberus: FF7, because Vincent Valentine is the best character ever, and that game is amazing fight me. Around this time I learn of a new game that is going to be released, Crisis core: Final Fantasy 7, a game for the PSP. I started saving immediately, so I could preorder, back when preordering was an alright thing to do.
Then it finally came out. And OMG was it good. The opening cinematic matching FF7, which is a spoiler in it of itself, and the game looked and felt amazing. Playing as Zack and not having it be turned based, but still having all the elements of a FF game was refreshing. And It arguably still does look good over a decade later, albeit dated. Getting more story for Zack and some of the major plot points of the original game was thrilling, even more so because Dirge's story line was hyper focused on Vincent in current time, with a little bit of the past, and Advent Children didn't really touch on a lot of the past out side of the end of the first game. The biggest shgame is that it took so long for a remake to even happen, which to my understanding was due to Gackt not wanting/allowing them to do it for whatever asinine reason.
I could go on for days, so I am just going to cut myself off there. Why I am asking for help.
Money is tight right now, due in part to medical bills to the birth, and subsequent death, of my daughter, dental surgery, my cat having had a tumor removed. And most recently our car, a 2006 Mercury, died because of condensation in the engine causing several lines to burst due to sub zero temps, and we are now paying for a 2020 Toyota Coralla.
The last 9 months have been kind shitty if you couldn't tell.
With that, I thank you for taking the time to read my post, and I hope you have a wonderful day/week, and stay warm! Steam profile
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2023.03.26 23:47 Starlight_City45 [30/F] - I need a friend
I’m not sure what to say but pretty much the title.. I need a friend to help me get through this existential crisis lol
I turn 31 this week and I’m really struggling with it. I feel like I’m stuck, going nowhere and not at all where I thought I would be. My friends and I are drifting apart because we are just in different places in our lives now and it sucks. They are getting married while I wake up alone and sleep beside my laundry. What I’m trying to say is.. they’ve grown up and matured where I feel like I haven’t gotten there yet and it’s lonely.
Other than feeling sorry for myself I do have some interests! I play guitar (very well) and sing (not as well) most of the time and I love all kinds of music - mostly alternative/grunge rock and I’m a huge Taylor Swift fan. I started to teach guitar to children last year and I love it!
I am also an avid reader and love anything fantasy/sci-fi related. VE Schwab is my favourite author and I love Harry Potter - I’d love to hear any book recommendations you might have!
I currently work in the skincare/dermatology industry now but I’m actively looking for a new job in another city (I told you, I’m going through it). I have my BSc in Business Management and so I am looking to get back into that line of work and I aiming for something in finance.
Anyway, overall I consider myself a very nice and understanding person! I have been through a lot in my life in terms of family dynamics/bullying and therefor I am very open-minded to others and accepting of everyone. I don’t care if you are male/female just as long as you think of yourself as a good person with a sense of humour.
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2023.03.26 23:47 kazrisk [Multiple Games] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 1 & 2 Remastered - my first COD campaigns! Loved them.
2023.03.26 23:46 Drasha1 Week 12 Tower of Retribution
2023.03.26 23:46 Drasha1 Week 12 Tower of Retribution
2023.03.26 23:45 limp3723 Hi, i have a question
I've been addicted to sissy porn and i crossdress from time to time. The thing with sissy porn is that it makes you fantasize being in the girl role. So i stopped for like 3 weeks now. I still crossdress, but a lot less, as per told by a therapist. The thing is try to separate crossdressing from sexual things. So, i was in a rehab center last year. I couldnt watch porn but i did fap everyday like 3 times a day. At first i was always fabtasizing about being the girl and all that stuff, but as tile passed the stimulus grew weaker and i started to have straight thoughts again (ad in me as the man). Still fapped a lot, until i kind of srsrted getting bored of using my imagination and by the end of the 2 months i was in there i didnt fap as much or every day.
I started living with my gf and we had sex. Not a lot but enough. And then i started again. At that point i wasnt crossdressing either. But i went on that path again and it did the same. Low sexual desire for my gf. Or other girls. Now im horny all day long. I go out and im like tts and @sses all day. But i struggle to get erect not touching myself, like it doesnt work. And i have asked my gf to help me sometimes with a bj or hand, cos sometimes i just cant stand it. Too much cravings. And i have to imagine myself as the girl.
The thing is, at this point im ok if that is what i want to do. I don't have anything against croasdressing or exploring my sexuality, but i know i like girls. So my question is, does it take longer to reboot this way? My thinking is that if i was away of the porn and still fapping but no porn and my brain reverted back to default settings, this time should too. But sometimes im afraid it wont.
I think its a matter of time until that fantasy dies. I still chat sometimes as a girl, but i dont fap, and i dont have the porn hypnotizing me. The ones that have this problem understand what i mean.
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2023.03.26 23:45 ShakaWTWF Why does the market say it only takes 10% when it’s actual taking 11.12% of the profit?
2023.03.26 23:42 Sol_Romu Fantasy Football Trophy
2023.03.26 23:41 JulesStars I really want to quit my job.
(sorry if this is so long) I started a job at Whataburger about a week ago and i really hate it so far, i thought that working overnight would be doable and that there would be enough people staffed but i was wrong. i will say that i have major depression and anxiety, as well as beginning stages of an auto immune disease so i have chronic pain in my spine, neck, hips, and feet so its hard to manage long hours on my feet at a time, i’ve told this to my manager but she still puts me on for 8 hour shifts, 5 days a week and i don’t think i can handle it.
My first night there was an absolute nightmare, when i got there i was told that i should just shadow and that i was going to be training, and the first manager (we will call him viking.) was cool he was really laid back but there was only about 3 other workers and it was truck night where we have to put away boxes of food and stock that they bring. it was just me and viking and we were so low on food before truck came that we had to shut down the store. I had to help put all the heavy boxes away and even bruised my thighs because i was trying to use them to lift the heavier boxes and there is an older manager (will will call her Ellen.) who was working window and she was mean but it was due to stress, and i was already doing more than i should, i was doing the fry station all by myself managing fries, strips, fish, onion rings, and hash browns plus its awkward because the fry station faces the customers and they stare while i cook and sometimes try and pull me away to ask me when their food will be ready. Viking was the cook and he had someone helping on grill, there were so many orders that eventually i couldnt figure out which was next in line and so the orders started piling up and were taking forever to get out because there was so many customers and cooking the food takes a while. We had a lot of refunds because they had to wait like an hour before they got their food, and eventually i was so overwhelmed because viking was slamming his fists on the table and cussing about how the daytime manager (we will call her Alice.) had fucked him over and like idk i was shaking and trying not to cry, and i could hardly breathe bc of how anxious i was plus there was no break i went the entire shift without rest. i have to walk to and from work and by the time i got home my body was aching in pain and i was so mentally drained that i just wanted to sleep. For my second night i was too scared i started having an anxiety attack trying to amp myself up for the shift and called Ellen to let her know that i couldnt do it because of my anxiety.
After this night shift i talked to Alice and told her that i don’t think i can handle this type of work and she offered to train me on morning shift and i decided to take the offer to get training and see if i could make it work. When i came in for the morning shift (8:30am-5pm) it was an entirely different experience but i was told that it was only temporary and that i would be put back on night shift after a few days of morning to test the waters. i wasn’t overwhelmed as much because if was fully staffed (10-12 people) and i got to do bag and tag instead of fry station which was nice. it was kind of frustrating because i could tell that Alice was making sure her shifts that she was on schedule for were well staffed while night shift is left to fend for themselves and people are calling out left and right and i honestly don’t blame them. i was so close to quitting after the first night but i wanted to give it another try because she asked if i wanted to be put back on nights after 2 morning shifts.
if you want to know about my second nightmare nightshift i’ll make another post about it. thanks for listening, do you think i should quit?
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2023.03.26 23:40 BroncosSabres BS Power Rankings: End of Round 4 2023
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This week I put a fair bit of time into re-writing the code for the BS Machine. Originally, I had written the code in C as a bit of a learning project, but have decided to re-write the code now in python. This should make it easier for me to implement some new ideas, and make it easier for me to produce graphical output directly as the season progresses. For the most part the code behaves the same, although I did fix a bug in the old code where the difference in team ratings was being converted to an integer (i.e. the decimals were being thrown out), causing a small overestimation of the underdogs chances in all cases (generally around 1-2%). For the most part, the flow on effects of this bug fix aren't super noticeable in the results. On a side note, the code is much nicer to read in python, but it now take at least five times as long to run than compiled C. I guess that's life.
|Ranking ||Team ||Offensive Rating ||Defensive Rating ||Total Rating ||Finals ||Top 4 ||Minor Premiers ||Wooden Spoon ||Premiers ||Remaining SoS Rank (1 is Hardest) |
|1 (-) ||Panthers ||2.62 (4) ||11.17 (1) ||13.78 ||89.4% ||63.1% ||21.4% ||0.02% ||21.4% ||12 |
|2 (+1) ||Roosters ||4.40 (2) ||6.50 (3) ||10.91 ||87.1% ||60.0% ||21.0% ||0.04% ||17.2% ||10 |
|3 (-1) ||Rabbitohs ||1.99 (6) ||8.37 (2) ||10.36 ||88.8% ||61.0% ||18.1% ||0.04% ||15.2% ||15 |
|4 (-) ||Sharks ||5.96 (1) ||1.70 (9) ||7.66 ||83.6% ||51.8% ||12.8% ||0.07% ||11.7% ||17 |
|5 (+2) ||Eels ||3.07 (3) ||1.85 (8) ||4.91 ||57.9% ||22.2% ||2.8% ||0.5% ||6.4% ||13 |
|6 (+4) ||Broncos ||-0.25 (8) ||3.26 (5) ||3.01 ||72.0% ||37.6% ||9.3% ||0.07% ||6.4% ||6 |
|7 (+1) ||Cowboys ||-1.89 (12) ||4.70 (4) ||2.81 ||52.5% ||18.9% ||2.7% ||0.6% ||4.6% ||7 |
|8 (-2) ||Dolphins ||2.15 (5) ||-0.42 (10) ||1.73 ||63.5% ||28.4% ||5.2% ||0.3% ||4.8% ||14 |
|9 (-4) ||Raiders ||-1.00 (9) ||2.24 (6) ||1.24 ||48.9% ||15.2% ||1.5% ||1.3% ||3.5% ||16 |
|10 (-1) ||Storm ||-1.13 (10) ||2.08 (7) ||0.95 ||38.7% ||11.9% ||1.6% ||1.3% ||3.2% ||1 |
|11 (+1) ||Manly ||0.90 (7) ||-1.68 (12) ||-0.78 ||45.9% ||16.5% ||2.6% ||1.3% ||3.0% ||11 |
|12 (-1) ||Dragons ||-1.77 (11) ||-3.73 (15) ||-5.50 ||17.3% ||3.6% ||0.3% ||7.7% ||0.9% ||9 |
|13 (-) ||Titans ||-3.28 (13) ||-3.59 (14) ||-6.87 ||17.8% ||3.6% ||0.3% ||5.2% ||0.7% ||8 |
|14 (-) ||Warriors ||-7.32 (16) ||-0.70 (11) ||-8.03 ||20.1% ||4.1% ||0.3% ||3.5% ||0.6% ||5 |
|15 (-) ||Bulldogs ||-6.39 (15) ||-2.73 (13) ||-9.12 ||10.4% ||1.6% ||0.08% ||7.9% ||0.3% ||3 |
|16 (-) ||Knights ||-4.00 (14) ||-8.13 (17) ||-12.13 ||5.2% ||0.6% ||0.03% ||15.4% ||0.1% ||4 |
|17 (-) ||Tigers ||-9.76 (17) ||-5.17 (16) ||-14.93 ||0.9% ||0.05% ||<0.01% ||54.8% ||0.02% ||2 |
I thought it might be an interesting addition to this post each week to include the BS projected final ladder based on the remaining draw and ratings above. I think this is helpful to show how both wins on the board, remaining draw, and current rating above all interact to paint a picture for how the season is panning out, especially when all three factors can move and pull in different directions. It also seems to me that in most ways, final ladder position is a more important metric than rating above.
|Rank ||Team ||Points ||Wins ||Losses ||PD ||Points For ||Points Against |
|1 ||Panthers ||34 ||17 ||7 ||269 ||571 ||302 |
|2 ||Roosters ||34 ||17 ||7 ||208 ||587 ||379 |
|3 ||Rabbitohs ||32 ||16 ||8 ||226 ||555 ||329 |
|4 ||Sharks ||32 ||16 ||8 ||210 ||649 ||439 |
|5 ||Broncos ||30 ||15 ||9 ||88 ||504 ||416 |
|6 ||Dolphins ||28 ||14 ||10 ||70 ||543 ||473 |
|7 ||Eels ||26 ||13 ||11 ||87 ||549 ||462 |
|8 ||Cowboys ||26 ||13 ||11 ||25 ||458 ||433 |
|9 ||Raiders ||24 ||12 ||12 ||47 ||488 ||441 |
|10 ||Manly ||24 ||12 ||12 ||12 ||522 ||510 |
|11 ||Storm ||24 ||12 ||12 ||-24 ||459 ||483 |
|12 ||Warriors ||20 ||10 ||14 ||-132 ||368 ||500 |
|13 ||Titans ||18 ||9 ||15 ||-137 ||442 ||579 |
|14 ||Dragons ||18 ||9 ||15 ||-156 ||450 ||606 |
|15 ||Bulldogs ||16 ||8 ||16 ||-196 ||376 ||572 |
|16 ||Knights ||14 ||7 ||17 ||-262 ||400 ||662 |
|17 ||Tigers ||8 ||4 ||20 ||-336 ||313 ||649 |
Final Ladder Probabilities
Round 5 2023 - BS Predictions: GAME 1: Roosters (69.4%) vs Eels (30.6%) - Projected Score: 26 - 18 GAME 2: Raiders (27.2%) vs Panthers (72.8%) - Projected Score: 12 - 20 GAME 3: Rabbitohs (76.2%) vs Storm (23.8%) - Projected Score: 24 - 12 GAME 4: Manly (79.5%) vs Knights (20.5%) - Projected Score: 32 - 18 GAME 5: Dragons (38.5%) vs Dolphins (61.5%) - Projected Score: 22 - 26 GAME 6: Broncos (88.4%) vs Tigers (11.6%) - Projected Score: 28 - 8 GAME 7: Sharks (85.8%) vs Warriors (14.2%) - Projected Score: 30 - 12 GAME 8: Bulldogs (28.3%) vs Cowboys (71.7%) - Projected Score: 12 - 22
BS's Key Takeaways:
- The minor premiership race is looking to be tightly contested, with the still top-ranked Panthers falling to an early 1-2 record. The top 3 ranked sides are neck and neck according to the BS machine, with about a 60% chance the minor premiers are one of these three teams. Nicho's triumphant return (along with the easiest remaining draw) has stamped the Sharks as well and truly in the race as well, whilst the Broncos are the only undefeated team remaining, with these two teams making up another 21% of the odds.
- The 0-4 Tigers are not quite out of the minor premiership race yet, topping the table in 4 of the 1,000,000 seasons simulated. This is down from 14 last week. On a related note, they came 9th in 10,300 (1.03%) of the simulations .
- It's starting to look a little nervous for the Storm, dropping to a 38.7% projected chance of finals, after a less than convincing win saw them drop ratings points, with the toughest remaining draw left in the comp.
- As was a common theme last year, there is a significant gap in rating between the bottom 6 teams and the top 11, that hasn't resolved in the first 4 weeks of this year. There are some promising signs though, with the Dogs and Warriors especially looking like they have potential to bridge the gap.
2023.03.26 23:40 VictoryGoth I'm an obscure comic creator. What should my tier pricing be?
Hey so basically I'm a loser with very few followers but my friends keep telling me I should make a Patreon for my comic. So I guess I'll try it, though I expect nothing. It's a fantasy comic for adult readers and I plan on having three tiers as listed below:
- Exclusive Art: Sketches, WIP updates, character sheets, background art progress.
- Early Chapter Access: Get fully completed chapters two weeks before public release.
- Early Art Stream Access: Get the recorded art streams one week after the live broadcast, and one week before the public release.
- Completed Comic Page Updates: Access to each individual, fully rendered page after completion, allowing you to read one page at a time. Low tiers and public releases will only get full chapter updates and will thus be potential months behind.
- Extra Early Art Stream Access: Get the recorded versions of art streams three days after the live broadcast, and four days before low tier.
- EXTREME WIP: FULL WIP of each individual comic page, from storyboard to sketch to ink to flat color to finished render. See my entire comic-making process.
- Comic Scripts: Access to my comic scripts that I won't be posting anywhere else.
- Access to Livestreams
I was thinking of doing $3, $6 and $9 tiers but idk. I've been looking around at other people's posts regarding this and maybe
I could push it to $5, $10 and $15 but that seems too high for someone like me. If I'm lucky I'll probably only get like six patrons total, so I have no idea how the tiny creator of a comic no one's going to read should be priced.
submitted by VictoryGoth
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