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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:30 MelkerJansson This Week In The Markets: Yellen says U.S. inflation easing as some sectors slow

I've collated 4 of the biggest/most interesting investing/market stories this week:
The full breakdown went live this morning right here, but the most interesting are included below for Reddit discussion as well.

Yellen says U.S. inflation easing as some sectors slow, labor market strong
The U.S. economy is flexing its muscles and feeling pretty strong, according to Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary. She mentioned that people are spending like there's no tomorrow, which is great news! However, she did admit that some areas are slowing down a bit. Lastly, she gave us some hope that we can tame inflation without sacrificing those sweet job opportunities. Unemployment is ticking up slightly to around 4% (compared to 3.7% in May), but that's still not too shabby.
GameStop slumps after terminating Matt Furlong as CEO
Big news from the gaming world! GameStop (GME), the notorious video game retailer, made a surprising move and said, "bye" to Matt Furlong as their chief executive. Their first-quarter results didn't quite meet the expectations of those Wall Street big shots. As a result, GameStop's stock took a bit of a tumble, dropping a whopping 17% in after-market trading.
The slide and fall of the Turkish lira
Turkey's lira (TRY) took a whopping 7% nosedive on Wednesday after the newly re-elected government is waving goodbye to their pricey 18-month strategy of keeping the currency under control by any means necessary. Ankara has had its fair share of financial struggles over the years and this time is no different.
Earlier in the week...
Apple Stock Hits All-Time High After Announcing Vision Pro
Apple (AAPL) stocks hit the highest price ever in the company’s whopping 43-year history in anticipation of the upcoming mixed reality Vision Pro headset. Exciting stuff, right? Well, the tech giant burst everyone's bubble by revealing a $3,499 price tag for their latest product that was a bit weightier than expected. AAPL slid about 3% in the afternoon, leaving it below the $180 mark and ending the day with a not-so-great 0.8% loss.
P.S. If you like this kind of summary, there's more in this free newsletter that tracks the biggest summaries in AI tech. It helps you stay up-to-date in just 5 minutes a week.

submitted by MelkerJansson to investing [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:30 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:28 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:28 Natus_est_in_Suht Why I quit parliament - Boris Johnson

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-i-quit-parliament/
I have received a letter from the Privileges Committee making it clear – much to my amazement – that they are determined to use the proceedings against me to drive me out of parliament. They have still not produced a shred of evidence that I knowingly or recklessly misled the Commons.
They know perfectly well that when I spoke in the Commons I was saying what I believed sincerely to be true and what I had been briefed to say, like any other minister. They know that I corrected the record as soon as possible; and they know that I and every other senior official and minister -including the current Prime Minister and then occupant of the same building, Rishi Sunak – believed that we were working lawfully together.
I have been an MP since 2001. I take my responsibilities seriously. I did not lie, and I believe that in their hearts the Committee know it. But they have wilfully chosen to ignore the truth because from the outset their purpose has not been to discover the truth, or genuinely to understand what was in my mind when I spoke in the Commons.
I believe that a dangerous and unsettling precedent is being set
Their purpose from the beginning has been to find me guilty, regardless of the facts. This is the very definition of a kangaroo court. Most members of the Committee – especially the chair – had already expressed deeply prejudicial remarks about my guilt before they had even seen the evidence. They should have recused themselves.
In retrospect it was naive and trusting of me to think that these proceedings could be remotely useful or fair. But I was determined to believe in the system, and in justice, and to vindicate what I knew to be the truth.
It was the same faith in the impartiality of our systems that led me to commission Sue Gray. It is clear that my faith has been misplaced. Of course, it suits the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the SNP to do whatever they can to remove me from parliament.
Sadly, as we saw in July last year, there are currently some Tory MPs who share that view. I am not alone in thinking that there is a witch hunt underway, to take revenge for Brexit and ultimately to reverse the 2016 referendum result.
My removal is the necessary first step, and I believe there has been a concerted attempt to bring it about. I am afraid I no longer believe that it is any coincidence that Sue Gray – who investigated gatherings in Number 10 – is now the chief of staff designate of the Labour leader. Nor do I believe that it is any coincidence that her supposedly impartial chief counsel, Daniel Stilitz KC, turned out to be a strong Labour supporter who repeatedly tweeted personal attacks on me and the government.
When I left office last year the government was only a handful of points behind in the polls. That gap has now massively widened. Just a few years after winning the biggest majority in almost half a century, that majority is now clearly at risk.
Our party needs urgently to recapture its sense of momentum and its belief in what this country can do. We need to show how we are making the most of Brexit and we need in the next months to be setting out a pro-growth and pro-investment agenda. We need to cut business and personal taxes – and not just as pre-election gimmicks – rather than endlessly putting them up.
This is the very definition of a kangaroo court
We must not be afraid to be a properly Conservative government. Why have we so passively abandoned the prospect of a free trade deal with the US? Why have we junked measures to help people into housing or to scrap EU directives or to promote animal welfare? We need to deliver on the 2019 manifesto, which was endorsed by 14 million people. We should remember that more than 17 million voted for Brexit.
I am now being forced out of parliament by a tiny handful of people, with no evidence to back up their assertions, and without the approval even of Conservative party members let alone the wider electorate. I believe that a dangerous and unsettling precedent is being set.
The Conservative party has the time to recover its mojo and its ambition and to win the next election. I had looked forward to providing enthusiastic support as a backbench MP. Harriet Harman’s committee has set out to make that objective completely untenable.
The Committee’s report is riddled with inaccuracies and reeks of prejudice but under their absurd and unjust process I have no formal ability to challenge anything they say.
The Privileges Committee is there to protect the privileges of parliament. That is a very important job. They should not be using their powers – which have only been very recently designed – to mount what is plainly a political hitjob on someone they oppose. It is in no one’s interest, however, that the process the Committee has launched should continue for a single day further.
So I have today written to my Association in Uxbridge and South Ruislip to say that I am stepping down forthwith and triggering an immediate by-election. I am very sorry to leave my wonderful constituency. It has been a huge honour to serve them, both as Mayor and MP.
But I am proud that after what is cumulatively a 15-year stint I have helped to deliver among other things a vast new railway in the Elizabeth Line and full funding for a wonderful new state of the art hospital for Hillingdon, where enabling works have already begun.
I also remain hugely proud of all that we achieved in my time in office as Prime Minister: getting Brexit done, winning the biggest majority for 40 years and delivering the fastest vaccine roll out of any major European country, as well as leading global support for Ukraine.
It is very sad to be leaving parliament – at least for now – but above all I am bewildered and appalled that I can be forced out, anti-democratically, by a committee chaired and managed, by Harriet Harman, with such egregious bias.
WRITTEN BY: Boris Johnson
submitted by Natus_est_in_Suht to tories [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:27 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:27 Otterbotanical Advice on finding success in jobs that require you to interact with people in a way contrary to how you've built your social interaction skills?

Like many people with ADHD, as a child I was forced to take an active role in learning how to be socially adept, how to read people, how to connect easier, how to understand and respect others' boundaries/comfort/space.
I have a ton of electronics repair experience, I've worked at many cell phone repair places, and I just got a job as a manager of a new location in a small business. Because it's a fairly new company, for the next few months it's looking like I will be doing very few repair jobs, and instead I'm the sole person responsible for making sales at this location, selling unlocked phones and phone plans.
This is a fantastic opportunity for me. I've never had a managerial job before, but I felt confident that I knew the industry enough to navigate the responsibilities of the job. HOWEVER, my personality and heavily-prided social skills are all geared towards allowing people their own space, allowing people to be in control of the flow of conversations, allowing people to make their own decisions and to have patience when I might have an answer or sentence queued up while someone is thinking.
So far, I feel like an absolute failure in the sales industry. I am doing my best to learn the tactics, learn how to smoothly upsell, how to find options that benefit both customers and company. I don't even feel scummy with the concept of sales, as the owner of the company/person who hired me, is authentically a non-scammy person who is just trying to maintain a healthy business and grow as much as possible.
Yet, no matter what I try, even when I'm anticipating that I might lock up in a sales pitch when a person balks, even when I prepare myself to be pushy or convincing or whatever, I simply can't keep my wits about me. I give up the chase too quickly, I wuss out of upselling or adding accessories, I continue to try and cut deals or make allowances *when they're honestly not needed*.
This job is a great opportunity, even if I don't stick with it, the longer that I can show that I worked as a manager on my resume, the more opportunities I have going forward. I have talked with the owner about how I used to feel bad about sales because I feel like I'm digging for customer's money, but he worked with me to change my perspective, and see it in a new light: If a customer is better off, if they have the means, then it's simply smart to give them greater options. If a customer has a tight wallet, it's okay to cut deals or even outright sell products below cost, where we're losing money in order to help a customer out.
Does anyone have insight or advice on how I can fight my social nature and improve in this way? I can't stand the idea that I lose out on future repair opportunities, future managerial opportunities, not to mention the income, all because I couldn't do sales.
submitted by Otterbotanical to ADHD [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:25 Dsalgueiro Baiano (Brazilian streamer) defends new transmission model and says he would pay for broadcasting rights (ALERT: It is a HUGE text, but with good content).

After the success in recent events, Gustavo "Baiano" has adopted a public defense of a new broadcasting model for the League of Legends championships promoted by Riot Games. The most watched streamer in the world at the Mid-Season Invitational (MSI), in May, the Brazilian maintains that it is necessary to decentralize the broadcasts and be creative to monetize the lives shared with the content creators and reveals that he has the cash to accept paying for the broadcasting rights of the tournaments. For the influencer, co-streams will be able to reignite and increase the public's interest in the competitive game.
The message was given - Baiano said three times throughout a Globoesporte interview, referring to the success at MSI 2023, the first time Riot released co-streams in international LoL championships.
Baiano's channel on Twitch peaked at 154,500 simultaneous viewers and accumulated 3 million watched hours. He was the personality with the highest numbers among those who did watch parties, at the MSI that broke audience records compared to previous editions.
According to Esports Charts, a website that tracks e-sports statistics, community streams accounted for about one-third of the total 61.5 million hours watched at the event. The data does not include numbers from Chinese streaming platforms.
The results were excellent, exceeding any expectations, but not mine, because I, who am immersed in the community, was always sure of that. I could feel people always asking: 'When is Baiano going to have broadcast image?' For two or three years listening to how many people wanted it, I already had an idea of the numbers, and there is still a lot of things to be done, Baiano said.
We can bring back the LoL audience of the last ten years, people who have followed at one time or another, bring everyone back together at once and grow the community to be strong again.
He said he intends to meet soon with Riot to discuss the possibility of co-streaming other events, including the Brazilian Championship (CBLOL).
Baiano said that the conversation about the post-MSI CBLOL has not taken place yet because he was focused on holding CBOLÃO, the recreational and charity LoL championship of which he is the creator. The event took place last weekend, also considered a success in audience, repercussion and structure.
Financial Concerns
One of the main fears of the developer, who controls the competitive scene, is financial. Releasing the broadcast signal to other streamers means spraying the audience on different channels than the official one, where sponsors are shown.
For this reason, Baiano defends a new business model for transmissions.
There has to be a mutual interest to create a new model. Certainly the co-stream, as proven at MSI through numbers, increases the ecosystem and the overall number of views. Obviously, it's not the simplest way to monetize, that is just take views, sell to the brand and you already have the numbers. You're going to have to get creative. But, anyway, the brand is exposed to more people - maintained Baiano, remembering that, during the MSI, he left the advertisements of the official stream running in his live.
If well explained... There is brand interest, streamer interest, and community interest. We just need to create the model that will make all this work, because it is interesting for everyone and for the ecosystem. More important than the number of views at an event, is the ecosystem growing. It's more people talking about the game and the competitive game and following it more and more.
Baiano revealed that, in recent years, he has saved up money to be able to buy LoL broadcasting rights, if this becomes possible for Riot.
I am a very down-to-earth guy in relation to everything I have built up until now. My priorities were to help my family. I am not a guy who likes luxury and ostentation, I have been preparing myself in the last years to have this capital to be able to buy broadcasting rights, when I had the option, or even to build my organization and get a team in CBLOL, who knows. I am feeling what is happening in this relationship with Riot to understand how far I can go and what I can do. But the options are on the table.
The streamer said that he has even offered Riot to pay the amount that the company estimates it would lose by sharing the stream with streamers, but that in the case of MSI, the developer provided the signal for free.
Co-Stream in CBLOL
He believes that, in CBLOL, the impact of a co-stream would be even greater than in international leagues, but points out that Riot Brazil always replies that they do not believe in this model.
This conversation [with Riot about having a co-stream in CBLOL] has been going on for two years. Until now the answer is always no, that there is no way and that CBLOL does not believe in this model, but the message was given. I should sit down with Riot soon, to understand their needs and fears so that we can create this model that is beneficial for everyone.
I am very confident that in a CBLOL, it would have an even greater result [than in MSI], because in CBLOL, to create content and stories within our own scenario, it is even simpler.
Player Criticism
Riot is also concerned about the content of the co-stream, over which the company has no direct editorial control. In the past, Baiano has been criticized for his derogatory remarks about players in his lives, which have even led to public discussions on social networks.
The streamer admits that he has "softened up" on certain issues, but emphasizes that he maintains his position that professional players, when they play badly, can be criticized by the community.
At the same time that I know that sometimes it's a little bit out of line, I understand that there is no professional player, not in LoL, in any sport, who doesn't accept being told that he played badly or that he was the worst in the match. It has nothing to do with a personal attack on the guy. So much so that I have several player friends in the scene, almost all of them are my friends, but they already understand naturally.
In the program I am there to analyze. If he was the worst, I can love the guy and have dinner with him afterwards, but there I will say: 'This guy was a mess today, he was 0/10, he played too bad. It is important for the player to understand, and I think they already understand, that his salary, which today is very high, includes this. He is a public person. It is included someone analyzing his game, saying that, in that game, he played badly and could have done this and that differently. These are non-negotiable things for me. I have to have this freedom, even because I think it is fair and the right thing to do.
That's what an athlete's life is about, it's ups and downs, and he has to understand that he is a public person. It's a little bit of creating these extremes, because people get more engaged in these moments. When a guy is playing badly, we call him a catfish and make it clear that he is playing badly. When the guy is playing well, the guy is a god, we put him up there on top. Everybody on the scene is understanding this much better, and I hope that Riot can also understand that this is not personal criticism.
"Saving the scene"
If Riot overcomes the financial and content issues and adopts the model of sharing the broadcast with streamers, as it does in Valorant, for example, Baiano believes it will be possible, in his words, to "save the scene," bringing viewers to LoL and reactivating the public's interest.
It is not even I think, I am absolutely sure! As I say, feeling the thermometer of the community, I feel that many people follow the scenario through "Island of Legends", maybe the guy wasn't even watching competitive anymore and still is because of us. Having this image model, we could go much further, bringing this guy to our side.
He sees the situation in the LCS, the North American LoL league, as a warning. There, the competition is facing, among several crises, a drop in numbers. This, in the streamer's view, is a consequence of the competitive landscape format that makes everyone know that a team from China or South Korea will win the international championships. For this reason, Baiano argues, the path is to produce content and provide entertainment, instead of betting everything on competitiveness.
All the regions are completely locked in their positions and nothing else moves there. Everybody knows: Brazil is going to lose, there is no game against Korea, China or any other league that is better than us. We go, lose our games, and come home. Always the same thing. But, at the same time, there is a community that is very passionate and wants to see the game, but wants to see it in other ways, in a more relaxed way. They want it to be their game, their fun and their entertainment at the same time.
Sometimes I talk jokingly, and people talk about saving the scenery, but saving the scenery is this. You see that many people are losing interest. You can see on social networks and video comments, people saying that they are not that excited to watch CBLOL anymore. Our job is to create this spirit and this interest in following the league. Obviously, with image, this would be potentialized several times over.
The streamer understands that an alignment between the parties would be necessary, but he emphasizes that there is no harm in splitting the transmission for the competitive market.
It is not something in any way that can be negative. I know Riot has the fears, because they have always had a monopoly on everything, but I can't see it. Obviously there has to be alignment of the parties, expectations, how far you can go, what you can push or can't push, but the result has made it clear, in numbers. There are many people who may not be reached by Riot. Riot can't reach a guy who played the game in 2016, doesn't play it anymore, and doesn't watch it anymore. It's just that through content and engaged streamers, we reach that guy and bring him back into competitive play. That is the most important thing.
Restructuring the circuit
Baiano, furthermore, defends a restructuring of the LoL competitive circuit, more similar to Valorant, in which there would be a league of the Americas, involving Brazil, Latin America, and North America, and that the championships be separated between East and West.
This is not defending the idea. This idea is necessary. It is even more serious, because, there in the touch with the community, I see that nobody has any expectation or hope anymore. The players are losing hope. When a competitive player, who is willing to give his life to keep playing and improving, feels that it is no longer possible and that the distance is so big that he cannot reach China or Korea, it is because this competitiveness is over.
In this model, there would be few and quick contacts between all the regions in a worldwide competition.
It would be like a Club World Cup, which lasts one week, and is only organized to have the competition. The World Cup itself, which sometimes lasts a month, 45 days, would have to be more in the separate regions, because then there is competition. We can, against North America, get to them and play an honest game, maybe against Europe we can get there. But Asia is in a way that, for us on our side, playing against the guys is sad. This is the moment that we have to joke about, because the game is over, there is no competitiveness anymore. We are live on the "Island of Legends" making jokes and reviews about the game, because there is no championship competitiveness.
Within this context is that the co-streams, more related to entertainment than to competitiveness, become important to maintain the public's interest.
If it is a game that we have a chance and the competition is very strong, it will be competitive. But if Brazil is going to play against China, we don't need to pretend that there is going to be a game. That is the moment when we will bring the guy with a joke, telling a story and creating some kind of different rivalry, so that the guy will be interested in watching the match, because, if it is a competitive game, everyone already knows how it is going to end, there is no point in watching - Baiano concludes.
Source: Globoesporte
submitted by Dsalgueiro to leagueoflegends [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:25 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
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A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:18 Pikewich Mark Basile Rebuttal Document and Summary Document

Document Filing:
https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewDocument?docIndex=eiBvBcFjxZfL6QFqS5S/WQ==
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$MMTLP Summary of @BasileEsq's response to @FINRA: (by Drew Diligence on twitter)
https://twitter.com/FreeCommercials/status/1667212932701364227
Mark says that the standard for claims in a pre-action disclosure in NY is that he only has to demonstrate facts that "fairly indicate" a cause of action that has merit. He brings to the courts attention that there is "no heightened pleading standard for this type of petition." What that means is Mark doesn't have to provide an extremely detailed or complex explanation when filing this type of petition, and that he only needs to present enough facts to show that there might be a valid reason for it.
Mark is also making the argument that his request for information is not a fishing expedition but a legitimate effort to uncover the parties who are responsible for fraud and market manipulation. He claims that without the blue sheets, he cannot properly frame his complaint or name the defendants he wants to sue.
Mark also argues that his request is reasonable and not overbroad or unduly burdensome. He specified the time period the information he is asking for, and says that the data they are requesting is essential to their claims of market manipulation and fraud.
Mark also argued that the investigative file privilege does not apply to FINRA because it is an independent, non-governmental organization authorized to bring administrative, disciplinary enforcement actions, and not an agency that brings forward civil or criminal actions. He stated that the Blue Sheets, which they are, are compiled for administrative enforcement purposes and not protected by the investigative file privilege. For what it's worth, he is 100% right on this.
Mark also argues that the information contained in the Blue Sheets should be granted to him because it falls into the category of factual or statistical data, and historically, information like this has been discoverable (he's right again). Mark says that this information is essential to his clients lawsuit and FINRA is the only entity that has it. Mark is disputing FINRA's claim that disclosure of the Blue Sheets would interfere with FINRA's investigations. He says that they are only asking for the Blue Sheets and not seeking any information related to FINRA's investigations at all. He also included an exhibit which basically breaks down how to read the blue sheets to show the judge that FINRA's claim stating he wouldn't know how to do so was ridiculous and without merit (I agree).
I think that Mark did a great job with this response. His arguments are clear, concise, and hold water. He was not messing around here. While he could have probably made some other minor arguments (relevance, stating that there was a public interest, stating that the need for the blue sheets outweighs any burden that would have been placed on FINRA, prior precedent), nothing would have been more substantive than what he brought forward here.
The petition will now go before the judge for oral arguments on Tuesday 6/13. Mark, on behalf of everyone, thank you and good luck.
submitted by Pikewich to NextBridgeHC [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:12 bloqbusta 27M, Looking to go back to school in Business/Finance. Not a strong resume, worried about the future, should I pursue this major in this field try elsewhere?

I am interested in majoring in business administration with a focus on finance. After lurking around these financial subreddits I have come across many people who seem to be going through difficulties getting a job in the industry. People who have fantastic resumes without gaps of unemployment. This is what scares me if I am to go through this process and come out with a degree. If those with a good resume are having difficulties getting an interview, then I feel when an employer looks at my resume my early life will be a reason I don't get a job or interview. I understand the finance industry is about having a clean respectable work history, but I feel finance reads more into work history than other fields and the competition will beat me out. My resume will look as follows.
I left high school, went to college in 2015 for three semesters and worked at a supermarket in the summer. I dropped out after my third semester, waited a couple months then continued working at the supermarket in March 2017. After 3 months started working 2 jobs by also getting a job at a hotel for 8 months starting in June. I left the hotel job in February of 2018. Then left the supermarket job in may of 2018. I went over a year without working then got a seasonal delivery job in October of 2019 where I was laid off in march of 2020. I didn't work again until October of 2020. From October 2020 - June 2021 I started 2 jobs and left immediately so no real work history there. It wasn't until June of 2021 I worked delivery for a year and a Half until leaving in December 2022. It is now June and I am applying for jobs again.
I am capable of being a strong consistent employee, but my resume does not show it. The reason I plan on using for why I had inconsistency in my employment is because my father is getting old and incapable of doing things on his own. He was diagnosed with Parkinson's and requires a lot of supervision and help around the house completing daily tasks. My time off of work was spent by helping him. Without mentioning my own mental health struggles this is the only reason I have as to why I was unemployed.
Going into a competitive field like finance I don't see my work history playing out well with future employers. Although I plan on working full time while also being a full time student for the next 4 years. I am hoping to get into a company that reimburses tuition as I work for them. I also know that others will be able to have internships in relative fields that will boost their resumes while I may not get the chance to have such internships. I am currently applying for fidelity and I am only in the stage of an initial interview. I am about to turn 27. I know I am very behind here but I am trying to put myself on course for success.
My question is, after knowing how my resume would likely appear after graduation. How do you feel I would fair going into the job market? Should I pursue this career in the finance/business administration industry? Or should I look elsewhere and possibly go after a degree in healthcare as the negatives of my previous employment history may not stand out as much. Maybe another degree will help me fir better in a different job market.
Any help is appreciated and thanks for reading.
submitted by bloqbusta to FinancialCareers [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:04 _lexierodriguez_ "Cat Acne" persisting for 3+ weeks... turned away from the emergency vet... PLEASE help

Hi everyone. Back in April, my cat Yuki (2 YO) developed cat acne for the first time. Her chin was looking pretty bad and she was acting sick (hiding, not eating or drinking well, etc.) so we took her to the emergency vet. The emergency vet said it was cat acne, and he perscribed her a steroid (prednisolone 5mg, twice a day x14 days) and an antibiotic (clindamycin, 2 mL twice a day x10 days). A skin culture was also performed where no anaerobic bacteria were isolated and it was determined that the clindamycin wasn't really working (but we finished the antibiotic regardless). Somehow, the vet determined the culprit was an "Enterococcus species". The steroid helped, but her chin acne came back (and ten times worse) about three weeks ago. Her chin is a bloody mess, and her chin hair is almost completly gone. Additionally, she has another scab/pustule thing above her lip, and she is losing hair there as well. She also keeps scratching her ears and her ears have been waxy lately even though they have always been clean in the past. It is important to add that the "acne" came back right after we took a five-day cross-country trip from Pennsylvania to Washington with her and our other cat (we had to move for my husband's new job). So, I'm sure stress could be a factor. She is still eating and drinking well, going to the bathroom, playing, and adjusting fairly well (verrrryyy slowlyyyy) to our new home. However, we tried to take her to the emergency vet again, but we were told to go home and save our money since it wasn't a real emergency and there was nothing that could be done for her. All the vets in our area are booked. We are trying to get her into a local pet dermatologist, but the soonest appointment is in August. So far, we have tried Vetericyn antimicrobial feline facial therapy (which didn't seem to help), and we just started Vetericyn antimicrobial wound care with the hydrogel a week ago. We have always used stainless steel and ceramic bowls for their food and water. The next thing I will try is switching her to a new food. I am hoping someone here can give me advice or tell me if I am worrying too much over "nothing". I have heard from other people that cat acne should only last a week or two if it is being treated, so I'm worried there is a possibility this is something different. However, if it were another illness, I think it is strange that our other cat is completely fine, when they use the same beds, food bowels, and litter boxes. Thanks in advance.
submitted by _lexierodriguez_ to AskVet [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:00 desiman90 How long are you willing to wait to find a match you desire?

*Long post !
I am 30M, 5'7, fair and above average looking NRI living in Canada since 2020. I graduated in September 2021 and started my first job in Jan 2022. I earn pretty good for myself ($4000 take home) and about to become PR soon here. 4 months after I started earning I thought I am stable enough to get married and it's time to start my search via AM.
We have been searching since 14 months and we got a lot of prospects. We have rejected a lot of these prospects mainly due to horoscope, or the parents behavior, sometimes due to my match not wanting to settle down in Canada and mainly cause my matches were not that good looking. I don't find my matches that attractive and many good looking do reject me too. Lol
In December 2022 I found a match. She was everything I wanted. Beautiful, smart and we vibed very well. I thought my search was finally over but due to horoscope issue on the girl's side, that didn't go anywhere, mainly cause my parents didn't support me at all. And I do regret losing her. LOL
We took a break from the search for few months and and now since april we have resumed the search. We are still getting matches every now and then but I have not found a woman that I want to marry. Someone who is pretty and liberal, and someone who vibes well with me. Most woman who want to connect with me are average looking. So mostly I don't even go ahead and talk to them as I know I don't find them attractive.
My mom is now in panic mode as in September I will turn 31 and she thinks that I won't get any prospects and she wants me to just go with whatever prospects I am getting right now.
While I am more chill and want to take time and marry only the person that I want to. I don't want to marry just cause I am getting OLD according to stupid mentality of Indian society. There are times when I want to create a bumble profile and find someone on my own. Which is going to be my last option anyways.
What's your situation? Have you found your dream girl or guy or are you in the same boat?
submitted by desiman90 to Arrangedmarriage [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 22:53 redalieninthesky Great Expectations, My Final Post.

You had expectations, I fell short of every one of them.
This isn't going to be a letter about who hurt who. Not is it going to be about my sexual wants and needs.
I'm finding this letter to be, one of the hardest things I have ever written. This letter is going to be about my truths and exposing my own lies.
I definitely lie when I say I'll be okay. I lie when I say don't worry about me. I worry about me.
I don't know what to do anymore. That's the truth. I've given all I can. Still spent more. I'm broke. Running on empty. I don't have a will or inner need to fight. I'm alone. I've always been alone. My WBC is 14,000. My kidneys are Stage 3. I can't eat. I don't sleep. When I do, it's nightmares. Not a single dream. Waking up is even worse. I'm instantly upset, I woke up again. The pain of this disease is eating away at me. Right down to the fiber of my being. I'm covered in bruises. Not even sure how they got there. My entire life has been a living nightmare. Fight or flight since the age of 4. Abused in every way. I've never felt safe. Nor heard. Or understood. Always kept at arms length. People say I love you, it'll be okay. They say you can always depend on me. While already having one foot out the door.
The only thing constant and definitely love. Is my love for my children. I've protected them from the horror's I've endured. Kept them away from family. The fucked up place I was born. Prevented them from being groomed since infancy as I had. Before this disease I worked two sometimes three jobs to make sure they had everything they needed and more. I gave them something I never had. A fair chance at life. That's why I stayed single and only dated once in a while.
The truth is. I actually fuckin Loved. I love you. I don't care if it's returned. I've never really been loved wholeheartedly and cared for. Actions speak. So do the eyes. Eyes tell all the lies. Nobody actually believes their own lies, yet live them. As if it's easy.
My existence has never been easy. I felt as if I had found permanence, when you asked me to marry you. A place to call home. A place where I felt love. Experienced family. I was building a foundation. I believed you. In you. I believed in us. Our own family. There wasn't a follow through. Don't feel guilty. I don't blame you. I've always been the dog everyone kicked.
Katie, and Des, and everyone who has bullied me. Labeled me a narcissist. A psychopath. Sociopath. Even had meetings and continues to do so. Group chats. Telling everyone around me, I am this or that. Looking down at me. Telling me I'm less than. Not worthy of love or a single care.
I must say. I don't care that I'm not like them. They're the ugly ones. They have nothing better to do than stir the shit pot. At first I was horrified. Now I find it entertaining. I'm even flattered. My existence far from them, seems to affect them. My existence gives them someone to hate. Someone to talk about. They put in so much energy into lil' ol'me. Projecting their own self hate.
I'll never look like them or act like them. Grown adults, who claim to be Christian. They say they know everything. Katie even thinks the earth is flat. Ignorance really is bliss. They're happy. Proud of themselves. Claiming to be everything holy and just trying to help. Help themselves. It's okay. I feel sorry for them.
I will never fit into a labeled box. I don't want to. Or feel the need to. I'm glad I'm not them. Living a colorless world. It would suck to be a walking contradiction. They live a lie. They're empty and plastic.
After all I've been through. All the pain. The suffering. I'm unapologetically me. Organic. Real. Uncouth. I live in truth. Beautiful lies are never going to be better than their ugly truths.
At least I can admit I hate myself. I can admit I'm flawed. I make mistakes. I've been sorry. The weight of the world has been uncomfortable, and messy.
What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Fuck that. I didn't want to have to be strong. I am weak. I'm dying. All alone. We all die alone. Anything obtained physically won't be tangible to bring with us when we Parrish.
You all put stock into all the wrong things. Go ahead and covet thy vanity. I'm ugly. Never strived to be pretty. I'd rather be real. My pictures are unfiltered.
Every scar, every freckle, and blemish is a reminder that I have experienced life. My skin has been kissed and bled. Left with reminders that I am me. I can't be more. I can't be less. I just exist.
My synapses firing faster than quantum computing. Organic, human shell. I feel ready to shed my skin. Ready to be reborn again. For now I'll just be. Sitting here bending time and light. Ready to bend space time. Welcoming my essence to rush along the intergalactic highway.
Love. Unrequited. Love. I tried it.
You all can simply Fuck off. I'll be okay. Don't worry about me.
submitted by redalieninthesky to UnsentLetters [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 22:51 hookshotsoftware Created an in-app feedback service, seeking your input on usability and pricing

I think in-app customer engagement, especially feedback, is important. I wanted to use Wiredash (wiredash.io) at the startup I work at and at my previous jobs, but $99 USD/mo was too expensive for a SaaS that just does feedback. Since the Wiredash package is open source, I started working on an alternative backend that implements the Wiredash API.
At this point I thought others might have the same problem as me, so I built an MVP dashboard in Flutter for the backend to gauge if the community wanted a more competitive offering to Wiredash. What I've launched is currently free to use and I would like help testing its usability. Eventually I would like to monetise this, so what's your opinion on fair pricing?
I've got the dashboard (imgur.com/a/cxPRq6A) hosted at hookshot.fly.dev and I've forked the Wiredash package at github.com/hookshotsoftware/wiredash-sdk and patched it to point to my backend instead of theirs. Please give it a go and tell me your thoughts.
submitted by hookshotsoftware to FlutterDev [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 22:48 KyleKKent Out of Cruel Space, Part 708

First
Capes and Conundrums
Pavel stretches in the stillness. The tapping of the keyboard and swearing under the breath makes Pavel consider his new partner a bit. Silicon Blake has an interesting background. Pavel made a point of looking into it. The man was... genetically human, currently. But he had been born of a brain scan of a Tret man. Sionis Blake. The man’s father. Legally.
Silicon had made the jump from a fully synthetic body to a human clone body with dataports about two weeks ago. Freshly after his training as an Undaunted. Legally he was considered to still be both a Tret and a synthetic. But for all practical purposes, he was a human cyborg.
One who wasn’t used to the sheer requirements of his body. Pavel suspected a good chunk of his bad attitude was the fact the man was only eating once a day and only small portions.
The morning shift started shortly after breakfast and went right to lunch. So when Pavel went for lunch, he went alone at first before doubling back.
“Hey, we’re supposed to be together. Like it or not you’re coming with me to the mess hall.” Pavel says and the man groans in frustration and closes his computer.
“Fine, but I’m taking my damn work with me.” Silicon states as he stands.
“Fair enough.” Pavel states and the walk goes in silence. There’s a small, out of the way table near the edge of things and Silicon starts working again, only to be interrupted when Pavel comes back with two trays. “You’re not eating enough.”
“What? The hell is going on?” Silicon demands as Pavel forces him to take the laptop off the table and puts a tray full of food down in front of him.
“I looked up your medical profile...”
“Why?”
“Because humans can eat what other beings consider biohazards, and if we were going to have forced contact I didn’t want to accidentally kill you with onion breath. Which is something that can make a Feli very sick and cause a standard Tret to vomit.” Pavel explains.
“Okay...”
“However, I noted that you volunteered for the Endurance Program. An initiative to give other races more staying power akin to humans.”
“Yes, and it’s worked very well. I’ve nearly doubled my productivity.” Silicon says and Pavel nods.
“It did, however, you’re not feeding yourself enough. Your breakfast is big enough, for a breakfast. You need Lunch and Dinner too.”
“What?” Silicon demands.
“To put it in mechanical terms, you’re operating on emergency power. This cripples many major systems. You need to fuel up more consistently.” Pavel states before pointing to the loaded plate. “What I grabbed you is called a ham and cheese sandwich. To it’s side is kettle chips with sea salt, opposite is a garden salad and the cup of brown substance is a dessert called chocolate pudding. It’s a small lunch, but a decent one. Consider this the minimal intake.”
He then pulls out a pair of large water bottles and places them on the table. “You also need to hydrate more. Water is converted into the lubricant of your physicality and without it the whole system will fail.”
As Pavel had been speaking Silicon had pulled out a bioscanner and gone over everything before pausing on the salad. “Why is there an acid here?”
“You’ve got stronger stuff in your stomach. Turn that scanner on yourself.” Pavel says dismissively as he grabs his larger and much more loaded sandwich off his own plate. Three types of meat, hot mustard, lettuce of some kind and tomato with swiss cheese. Good stuff.
“Look, if this is some kind of ill conceived peace offering...”
“Peace nothing, you’re hangry half the time. Humans get aggressive in times of desperation. Basic instinct. You have that instinct now so even if you aren’t consciously looking for a fight, you’re ready to haul off on someone because you need food.”
“Really?”
“Yes, really. Now eat for god’s sake.”
“I’ve had breakfast. Two of those pancakes, a fruit cup and a glass of water. That’s plenty.”
“Nowhere near enough for breakfast. Let alone breakfast for someone in a high stress job. Besides, breakfast in only one of three meals.” Pavel counters and Silicon glares at him. “Seriously eat, it will help.”
Silicon gives him an odd look before grabbing his sandwich and taking a bite out of it. Pavel concentrates on eating his own much larger meal and he finishes within ten minutes. The spice in the mustard forced him to slow a little and he sits back to watch as Silicon goes at the pudding cup. For what the man claimed of not needing the food he outright inhaled it.
“So?” Pavel asks as Silicon finishes up taking a swig of his water. “Feel better?”
“... yes.” Silicon admits with his eyes screwed shut in frustration. “... I just thought it was Apex aggression not...”
“Hunger and desperation? You need thousands of calories a day. Also, don’t forget to use the bathroom when you need it. Our digestive tracts are powerful but not perfect. You will need to let it out.”
“really? You’re telling me to excrete? How simple do you think I am?” Silicon asks tartly.
“I think that you’re used to living in a body that required only energy and only have memories of a body that needed very little in the form of physical nourishment. So I’m not making any assumptions and telling you everything.” Pavel says as he finishes off his own water. “Now, I’ve got something to do. Our lunch break ends in a half hour and I’ll see you back at the test chamber for the remainder of that shift. Then we’re moving onto mine. I hope you’re ready to play spotter.”
“Oh goody. Using chemically propelled murder tools to NOT actually kill.”
“You have a problem with your orders?” Pavel asks him and he sighs.
“No. I’ll see you in a half hour.” Silicon says and Pavel nods before taking his own tray, then grabbing Silicon’s depleted one and taking them both out. “... Damnit, I hadn’t thought that humans would require so much damn food. I’m pulling in Axiom to feed, so why aren’t I being sustained?”
•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•×•
And it was back to the programming. Silicon was working faster and actually humming to himself a bit so that seemed alright. But not ideal. Pavel was really starting to get bored though. After yesterday’s test of things the drones had not been reactivated as Silicon seemed to be of the belief that things were a purely programming issue. If they were great, the problem is that there was no way of telling if things were just a programming issue or something mechanical.
Pavel pulls out his communicator and brings up the specs of the drones. They were basic, off the shelf prosthetic bodies designed to be piloted by a person, but a program in it’s place instead. They had been reinforced and upgraded a few times, but none of it seemed too egregious.
Similar codes and programming had been used in travelling shows and other such bits of entertainment to serve in the role that a minimum wage worker would slowly have their soul worn away doing. The repetitive, thankless tasks that need to be done over and over and over again.
Providing a low level opponent to be beaten in a fistfight or outsmarted by someone sneaking around shouldn’t be too hard. A videogame AI could get the behaviours down and then it was controlling the body.
Which was where Silicon and several other people were stuck. There was something wrong with their sense of balance and often they struggled to stay standing at all. All of them. Despite the code.
“If it was a gun I’d be checking it for cracks.” Pavel mutters to himself.
“What was that?” Silicon asks looking up from his laptop.
“All the drones are failing in the same way. You think it’s coding but... if it was a gun I’d be checking for structural damage.”
“These aren’t guns.”
“But both are machines. I think the hardware should be tested a bit. The coding has a lot of eyes on it. But the hardware?’
“The hardware was bought from a reputable source and passed their safety inspections.”
“Safety means that my necklace breaks if someone tries to strangle me with it.” Pavel says and Silicon pauses and looks up at him. Opens his mouth to say something then reconsiders and giving the nearest drone a look.
“Grab a toolkit. We’re taking it apart.” He says as he closes the laptop.
It takes five minutes to carefully take apart the chest of the drone and start examining the internal components.
“Here. These little gyroscopes are all over the place in the drone to give it a kinesthetic location sense. If you’re mentally linked to it then you can feel the direction of down from both gravity and the internal scope.” Silicon explains and Pavel gives one a tap. It does not move. “You have got to be kidding me.”
“Is this jammed?” Pavel asks as he pokes it again before reaching in with his fingers and feels... “There are metal filings in here. A dirty production line?”
When he removes his finger from thy gyroscope it moves easily in response. He brushes out a few shavings and Silicon is muttering something foul under his breath as he tests the other gyroscopes. One in every five of them are jammed in someway and after they clear out the chest they put the plating back on and move to the other limbs.
The pattern holds. One stuck internal gyroscope in every batch of five. It takes a full hour to clean out them all and give the internals of the drone some extra cleaning. It’s sealed back up again and Pavel is tightening the last screw as Silicon is tapping away at his laptop again.
“Okay! Take a step back. Let’s see if that helped.”
“If nothing else it’ll fail faster with it knowing which way to fall.” Pavel notes as he steps away and the drone activates. It sits upright the same as it could before and then turns over and stands upright. There was markedly less wobble this time and Silicon sends a command. It snaps it’s arms out and begins to turn.”
“Hey! That did it... shit. We need to clean out all the drones.” Silicon curses.
“We report this in and get fifty other guys to help, this is not a two man mission.” Pavel says wryly. “Not to mention the quartermaster is going to be looking to kill someone for having shit product forced on us. They do not take this shit lying down.”
“The sale’s rep will either be looking for a new job or finding a new fetish by the time those monsters are done with her.” Silicon notes. “Hey, think you’re ready to test it for fighting ability?”
“Sure thing.” Pavel says closing up the toolbox and then sliding it away with a foot. “Send it.”
“Alright, let’s test it’s tracking and offence. I need to dodge the attacks and move around the drone. Get it to follow you.” Silicon says sending the command and the Drone suddenly snaps it’s head towards Pavel and then turns as one. “That was a little stiff, I’m going to have to iron things out a little...”
The drone opens with an attempted haymaker and Pavel hops to the side and keeps going until he’s standing behind the drone. It follows him the whole time and then tries a cross. He fades back and takes a few steps away and it keeps pace as best it can.
As the drone goes for a grab he uses Axiom to leap clean over it and land on the other side then weaves to the side to avoid the snap kick as the logic tree self updates and the drone gets a fraction better at fighting.
“There we go! Living code! Finally!” Silicon cheers! “Start deflecting it’s attacks. Block and parry, I need to see how it responds to that.”
“Sure thing.” Pavel says and he swats away the next attempted haymaker.
“Interesting, okay, it’s correlating with that code chunk...” Silicon says as Pavel blocks two jabs boxer style and prevents it from grabbing onto him. “Hey that’s weird! Can you hit it back? Don’t break it or nothing, but see how it responds...”
“This good?” Pavel asks as he palm thrusts it in the middle of the chest and Silicon lets out a confused sound. The drone stumbles back in response to the light blow and regains it balance.
“Well how the hell did that happen? Do it again!” Silicon says as he squints at his screen.
Pavel rushes the drone and then gives it another, slightly firmer, smack in the middle of the chest. Silicon swears under his breath.
“This is weird! Alright, I’m deactivating the drone. Can you drop it off in it’s charging port?”
“Easy enough.” Pavel says as he catches the suddenly powered off robot and hefts it over his shoulder. It slots into it’s place easily and he walks over to where Silicon is squinting at the screen. “So what’s it look like?”
“There was a weird bit of...” Silicon says before looking up at Pavel. “Right, okay, basically every step of the program is like a huge tree right? You start at the tip and by evaluating a situation you go down one of the branches. Basically it’s like a plan flowchart, is this happening? If yes, go this way, if no then go down to the next question. A computer’s processing speed lets it go through this fast so it can keep up with reality.”
“But only if you’ve got enough questions for all the things that happen.”
“Right, well that’s where the Virtual Intelligence comes in. Where it compares situations and while likely not understanding them, it does know how to mimic them. This is where you get things like chat-bots or a video game enemy that seems to learn. It’s almost learning, but it’s not. Not really. That’s what we’re trying to get to, and we have the start of it.”
“Did something go weird?”
“I’m not sure yet? I think... maybe yes? Maybe no?” Silicon says as he turns the laptop to let Pavel see the lines up on lines of code. “This is literally the drone’s brain here. The thing is about an evolving program is that it can cause itself to bloat. That was the issue I was having yesterday and still today. Although it’s not as big as it was yesterday now that we know there’s hardware problems too. We put a lot of code into making these things balance and now that we’ve solved the problem... how much of that can be taken out and how much has to be left in is going to be the work of weeks.”
“Ah got it.”
“You do?”
“I’m a sniper. I have to focus on not only aiming for the target, but I have to accommodate for the wind drag at different temperatures and humidity levels, particles in the air like ash or dust, the gravity of the world I’m on, the movement of the target and the things around them. To say nothing of the make of the weapon firing the bullet and the make of the bullet itself. It’s very much a science.” Pavel says pulling out his little book and handing it to Silicon.
The formally synthetic man looks through the small black book and sees rows upon rows of calculations without any answers written he lets out a little hum before closing it and handing it back.
“I think I understand. Still. There’s more to do... and not much more time to do it. This shift is about to end.”
“It is. Which means it’s time for you to see all that dread math in motion.”
“Oh no! Not the dread math!” Silicon’s sarcasm could peel paint.

First Last
submitted by KyleKKent to HFY [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 22:41 Team_Purple AITA for “siding with my family” against my boyfriend?

I (24F) and my boyfriend (26M) have been in a relationship for just over a year now, and we can’t seem to see eye to eye on this conflict so I’m looking for a bit of perspective on this. Basically, this came about after the funeral of an old coworkefamily friend that he didn’t know—after the mass was over, my siblings/cousins/aunts and uncles decided to go to a local restaurant/bar for a few drinks. BF had been out with some friends that day, but some of my family asked what he was up to and told me to invite him so I did.
This is where the conflict comes in. My family is VERY traditional Latino catholic. It’s hard for me to balance as I am very progressive, my parents still have a big issue with me spending the night at his place and feel the need to keep tabs on me, etc. This includes conservative views on drugs, even though marijuana is legal where I live. I used to smoke in college frequently but now do it irregularly as I have a full time job, they have no clue about this and would absolutely freak if they knew. BF knows this, but when he shows up to the restaurant his eyes are totally red and it’s clear he’s stoned and must have smoked in the car before coming in. I guess I might have been okay with this if it wasn’t noticeable, but he’s so visibly high that my aunt noticed and basically started questioning/berating him for minutes on end. I tried to tell her to ease up and defended him best I could but it spiraled into her talking about his job (I am the breadwinner) and basically how he’s not good enough for me and this proves it.
Obviously I don’t agree with what my aunt said, but him showing up high when he knows how my family would react has made me start to wonder if he has more of a problem with weed/alcohol than I originally thought, especially since we’ve been talking about moving in together. After this happens, we’re talking about it the next day and I try to raise these concerns. He turns it into how I’ll always side with my family over him, while I’m trying to explain how I can be upset with both him and my aunt. I ask him not to do that again, and he says he’ll respect that and not do it but that he’s an adult and if he wants to he will. I try to point this out as a contradiction, he disagrees. He takes this as me attacking him and says he feels this is “the most attacked he’s ever been” when I’m just trying to say this isn’t acceptable around my family. He’s saying he doesn’t want to see this aunt ever again, which is fair, but I don’t have the social capital in my family to have my family pick my boyfriend to come to events instead of my aunt. He wants aunt to apologize, but knowing her, she won’t because she views him as in the wrong for showing up that way. He thinks I’m in the wrong for not siding with him more because technically it’s legal and he’s an adult. Meanwhile I think he’s in the wrong for showing up to a funeral “after party” in that state and not being more understanding of the position he’s putting me in. I know Reddit has a lax view on weed, but I still love my family and I think this is more about him not respecting what’s appropriate to them—it’s so easy NOT to get high before going somewhere. So, AITA?
submitted by Team_Purple to AmItheAsshole [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 22:36 Accurate-Attempt-615 Screwing me over ever after I left

I don't have any screenshots yet, but I just got off the phone with unemployment and they just told me that my last employer marked they terminated me. I was pulled into the office by them and told I'm getting layed off because they're unable to keep me due to work moving down to a mexico facility. I got severance and filed for unemployment, but haven't gotten anything in the past 4 weeks. I just got off the phone with UC (unemployment comp) and they told me that my job marked me as terminated and not layed off. I won't have any further info until Monday, but this is fairly infuriating and I wanted to get it off my chest lol.
submitted by Accurate-Attempt-615 to Vent [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 22:36 srsh32 Someone fired in the lab possibly trying to bring me down with them?...How to handle this?

They've been slow fired, I suppose you would say, and have been hanging around the workplace not doing much while applying and interviewing for other positions (PI decided it was easier this way than to try firing them through HR). I conversed with them often in the past about a particular individual in the group that is exceptionally abusive but did also join in on discussion as they were complaining about our PI. I voiced that I didn't have a lot of issues with the PI but did say a couple things pertaining to the boss' occasional poor behavior and treatment of other people in the group. I agreed with and suggested a diagnosis with this person and others in group conversation...I know I shouldn't have participated in this conversation. In hindsight, communicating that I wasn't having problems with the PI, stating that the PI had voiced they were happy with my work, very likely could have turned this person against me while the PI was giving them a hard time.
They just sent an email that I'm not understanding in which they're apologizing for having "come across as dismissive (?) about what I'm going through", writing that "it's not right or fair", that they're "sorry and that it shouldn't happen in the workplace whatever the reason for it is". They stated they "wanted to get this off their chest". They write that I am "doing very well with my job and that they are happy the boss is recognizing it, and for me to keep at it".
I'm left with the impression they're trying to document my complaints. They seem to be looking for a response that they can use. Why else write this in an email? I'm struggling with determining how to respond or if I even should. I don't want to affirm what they've written. If I respond that I'm not sure what they're referring to, they'll elaborate and might begin trying to paraphrase (likely incorrectly) comments I've made in the past. They make it out as though I have general complaints about working here while my complaints were only ever about one individual that would scream and yell, etc (atrocious behavior)...Stating in the email that they were dismissive about my complaints communicates clearly in this potential documentation that they never agreed with what I was saying in case they're trying to throw me under to save their own relationship with the PI..? also writing that the boss is properly recognizing my work would show that they were always on the PI's side while I perhaps had problems with him. This could perhaps be nothing but I feel I need to be cautious.
They've also made a particular off-hand comment in the lab twice about my job search without any regard for whether or not anyone might be able to hear this. This was after they'd responded to me about how their job search was going..I had the impression that perhaps they wanted others to hear this. On one of these occasions, the PI had indeed been sitting in the next bay over though I would be surprised if the PI caught this. I'm not searching for another job. I never said that I was. At most, I complained about the low pay but stated it is not a good time at all for me to move onto another lab.
submitted by srsh32 to AskAcademia [link] [comments]